000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152123
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED JUL 15 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM CARLOS AT 10.1N 130.8W AT 15/2100 UTC MOVING W OR 
270 DEG AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 55 WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES 994 MB. CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED 
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM E 
SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 30 NM W SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER. CARLOS IS 
RAPIDLY WEAKENING AS SW SHEAR INCREASES OVER THE SYSTEM AND ALSO 
DRY AIR BECOMES ENTRAINED IN ITS INFLOW. REFER TO LATEST NHC 
FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS. 

TROPICAL STORM DOLORES AT 16.2N 116.6W AT 15/2100 UTC MOVING NW 
OR 310 DEG AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 40 WITH GUSTS TO 50 
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES 1003 MB. NUMEROUS STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM N QUADRANT OF CENTER. DOLORES IS 
MOVING NW OVER COLDER WATERS BUT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN A 
LITTLE THROUGH NEXT 24 HR BEFORE STARTING ITS WEAKENING TREND. 
REFER TO LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 05N TO 17N ALONG 105W MOVING W AT 18 KT OVER 
PAST SEVERAL DAYS. A TRAILING BAND OF CONVECTION FROM DOLORES 
EXTENDS TO 10N WITHIN 120 NM WEST OF THE WAVE BUT SHOWS NO SIGNS 
OF BEING PERSISTENT OR TO BE ORGANIZED BY CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE WAVE. CONDITIONS ALOFT REMAIN LESS THAN FAVORABLE WITH 
LITTLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT NOTED.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...04N77W TO 
07N110W TO 09N120W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINTS 09N87W AND 
08.5N98W AND 09N121W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 10.5N111.5W 
TO 10N105.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE POINT 09N134W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE AREA FROM 08N TO 10N W OF 137W.

...DISCUSSION...

DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS WEST OF THE AREA WITH ASSOCIATED SOUTHERLY 
FLOW WEST OF A LINE THROUGH 32N131W TO 18N140W. THIS AREA IS 
MOIST ALOFT BUT MOSTLY CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS 
WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. SOME 
HIGH BROKEN CLOUDS ARE ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 25N W OF 138W. 
THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE NEXT 
SEVERAL DAYS. 

ANOTHER DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS OVER THE AREA EAST OF 122W AND 
NORTH OF 23N. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS OBSERVED NEAR 
26N117W. THE AREA IS MOIST ALOFT WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER 
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE NOTED IN THE 
LOWER LEVELS.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS WEAKLY ANTICYCLONIC IN THE MIDDLE AND 
UPPER LEVELS. THE AREA BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS IS DRY AND CLOUD 
FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
STRATOCUMULUS NORTH OF 25N WEST OF 122W AND N OF 15N WEST OF 
130W.

NE TO E GAP WINDS IN AND DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OF 
20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL 
DAYS.

CROSS EQUATORIAL SE AND SW SWELLS WITH FRESH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL 
WIND FLOW RESULT IN SEAS TO 10 FT OVER WATERS S OF 06N W OF 
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. 

MODERATE SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 115W. ELSEWHERE 
EXCEPT FOR TROPICAL STORM CARLOS AND TROPICAL STORM DOLORES A 
WEAK TROUGH IS ANALYZED AT THE SURFACE.

$$
LL