000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151614
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED JUL 15 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE CARLOS AT 10.3N 129.5W AT 15/1500 UTC MOVING W OR 280 
DEG AT 5 KT.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 75 WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES 978 MB.  NUMEROUS STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM NE QUADRANT OF CENTER.  CARLOS EXPECTED 
TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN TO TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HR AS 
DAMAGING NW SHEAR INCREASES AND DRY AIR BECOMES ENTRAINED IN ITS 
INFLOW.  REFER TO LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

TROPICAL STORM DOLORES AT 15.0N 115.6W AT 15/1500 UTC MOVING NW 
OR 310 DEG AT 11 KT.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 35 WITH GUSTS TO 45 
KT.  ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES 1005 MB.  NUMEROUS STRONG 
CONVECTION IN CLUSTERS WITHIN 240 NM N AND 150 NM S QUADRANTS.  
DOLORES HEADS NW INTO COLDER WATERS BUT IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER 
STRENGTHEN THROUGH NEXT 24 HR BEFORE STARTING ITS WEAKENING 
TREND.  REFER TO LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04N TO 17N ALONG 104W MOVING W AT 20 
KT OVER PAST SEVERAL DAYS.  MOST CONVECTION REMAINS IN VICINITY 
OF ITCZ AS CONDITIONS ALOFT REMAIN LESS THAN FAVORABLE.  
NEVERTHELESS...AS WAVE CONTINUES W...IT IS BOUND TO ENCOUNTER A 
MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT AND BE ABLE TO STRENGTHEN. 

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 04N77W TO 13N110W TO 11N117W TO 08N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF 
AXIS E OF 100W AND WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS W OF 115W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATING WRN PORTION OF BASIN EXPANDS ITS 
DRY INFLUENCE TO 118W JUST N OF ITCZ.  THIS SCENARIO SPELLS DOOM 
TO BOTH ACTIVE TROPICAL SYSTEMS IN E PAC...HURRICANE CARLOS AND 
TROPICAL STORM DOLORES.  ELSEWHERE...RIDGE OVER MEXICO LIKELY TO 
GIVE WAY TO APPROACHING TROUGH GIVES A RESPITE TO TROPICAL WAVE 
FOR POSSIBLE SHORT-LIVED STRENGTHENING CYCLE. 

GAP WINDS...FRESH EASTERLY TRADES WITH SEAS TO 9 FT EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE THROUGH GULF OF PAPAGAYO FOR AT LEAST 2 MORE DAYS.

CROSS EQUATORIAL SE AND SW SWELLS AND S LOW LEVEL FLOW AT 15 TO 
20 KT RESULT IN SEAS TO 10 FT SPREADING N OVER WATERS S OF 10N W 
OF GALAPAGOS ISLANDS THROUGH 48 HOURS.

HIGH PRES CENTER 1024 MB N OF AREA DRIFTS E PACKING PRES 
GRADIENT AGAINST BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST WITHIN NEXT 36-48 HR 
INCREASING FRESH NW WINDS LASTING THROUGH END OF FORECAST 
PERIOD.  

$$
WALLY BARNES