000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150356
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED JUL 15 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE CARLOS AT 10.0N 128.6W AT 15/0300 UTC MOVING W OR 270 
DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES 972 MB. ASSOCIATED STRONG 
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE WELL ORGANIZED AND MOSTLY WITHIN 75 
NM OF THE CENTER. UPPER DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES TO BE FAVORABLE 
WITH MODERATE OUTFLOW. REFER TO LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

THE TROPICAL LOW HAS BECOME TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E NEAR 
13.8N 113.8W AT 15/0300 UTC MOVING W NW OR 300 DEG AT 9 KT. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. ESTIMATED 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES 1006 MB. CONVECTION HAS ORGANIZED MAINLY ON 
THE EAST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION WITHIN THE LAST SIX HOURS. 
UPPER DIFFLUENCE APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE OUTFLOW. 
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 12.5N TO 
16N FROM 111W TO 113W. REFER TO LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE N OF 05N ALONG 100W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THERE IS 
NO CONVECTION ORGANIZED NEAR THIS WAVE. 

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...06N77W TO 
07N105W TO 07N115W TO 09N125W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF 08N95W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 10N TO 14N 
FROM 102W TO 105W. 

...DISCUSSION...

DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS WEST OF THE AREA WITH ASSOCIATED SOUTHERLY 
FLOW WEST OF A LINE TROUGH 32N135W TO 20N140W. THIS AREA IS 
MOIST ALOFT BUT CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH 
BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. 

ANOTHER DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS OVER THE AREA EAST OF 120W AND WEST 
OF A LINE FROM 15N115W TO 25N111W TO 29N111W. THE AREA IS MOIST 
ALOFT BUT MOSTLY CLOUD FREE.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS WEAKLY ANTICYCLONIC IN THE MIDDLE AND 
UPPER LEVELS.

NE TO E GAP WINDS IN AND DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OF 
20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL 
DAYS.

CROSS EQUATORIAL SE AND SW SWELLS WITH FRESH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL 
WIND FLOW RESULT IN SEAS TO 10 FT OVER WATERS S OF 06N W OF 
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. 

MODERATE SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 17N WEST OF 115W. ELSEWHERE 
EXCEPT FOR HURRICANE CARLOS AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5-E A WEAK 
TROUGH IS ANALYZED AT THE SURFACE.

$$
LL