000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142121
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JUL 14 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE CARLOS AT 10.0N 128.2W AT 14/2100 UTC MOVING W OR 280 
DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 85 WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES 978 MB. ASSOCIATED STRONG 
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE WELL ORGANIZED AND MOSTLY WITHIN 75 
NM OF THE CENTER. UPPER DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES TO BE FAVORABLE 
WITH MODERATE OUTFLOW. REFER TO LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...TROPICAL LOW...
 
LOW 14N112W 1008 MB MOVE WEST NORTHWEST 10 KT. THE CONVECTION IS 
HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION EAST OF THE CENTER 
AND NOT WELL ORGANIZED. MODEL GUIDANCE MOVES THE SYSTEM 
NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS AND WEAKENS THE CIRCULATION AFTER 
ABOUT 36 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN THE AREA FROM 109.5W TO 112W FROM 11N TO 16N. PRES 
GRADIENT N OF CENTER RESULTS IN LARGE AREA FRESH WINDS WITHIN 
330 NM OF CENTER. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION REMAINS A 
POSSIBILITY AS BROAD TROUGH MOVES INTO A LESS ADVERSE WINDS 
ALOFT. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE N OF 05N ALONG 97W/98W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THERE IS 
NO CONVECTION ORGANIZED NEAR THIS WAVE. 

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE 05N77W TO 
06N100W TO 09N110W TO 07N115W TO 09N125W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04.5N TO 06N FROM 80W TO 84W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 08N TO 09N FROM 88.5W TO 95W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 09N99W TO 15.5N105.5W.
SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 07.5N TO 
09N FROM 132W TO 140W.

...DISCUSSION...

DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS WEST OF THE AREA WITH ASSOCIATED SOUTHERLY 
FLOW WEST OF A LINE TROUGH 32N135W TO 20N140W. THIS AREA IS 
MOIST ALOFT BUT CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH 
BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. 

ANOTHER DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS OVER THE AREA EAST OF 120W AND WEST 
OF A LINE FROM 15N115W TO 25N110W TO 29N110W. THE AREA IS MOIST 
ALOFT BUT MOSTLY CLOUD FREE.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS WEAKLY ANTICYCLONIC IN THE MIDDLE AND 
UPPER LEVELS.

NE TO E GAP WINDS IN AND DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OF 
20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL 
DAYS.

CROSS EQUATORIAL SE AND SW SWELLS WITH FRESH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL 
WIND FLOW RESULT IN SEAS TO 10 FT OVER WATERS S OF 06N W OF 
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. 

MODERATE SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 17N WEST OF 118W. ELSEWHERE 
EXCEPT FOR HURRICANE CARLOS AND THE TROPICAL LOW A WEAK TROUGH 
IS ANALYZED AT THE SURFACE.

$$
LL