000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141609
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE JUL 14 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1415 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
HURRICANE CARLOS AT 10.0N 127.5W AT 14/1500 UTC MOVING W OR 280 
DEG AT 6 KT.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 80 WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES 978 MB.  ASSOCIATED STRONG 
CONVECTION CONTINUES WITHIN 90 NM S AND 60 NM N SEMICIRCLES.  
CARLOS HAS BEEN MOVING INTO LESS UPPER LEVEL SHEAR WHICH 
EXPLAINS ITS TEMPORARILY INTENSIFICATION.  NEVERTHELESS...UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE AHEAD OF CARLOS SHOULD BRING SOME ADVERSITY IN THE 
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT AND WEAKEN AFTER 24-36 HRS.  REFER TO LATEST 
NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...TROPICAL LOW... 
SURFACE LOW PRES AT 13N113W 1008 MB CONTINUES TO BAFFLE 
OBSERVERS WITH LOW LEVEL SWIRLS GROWING AND DISSIPATING AT 
RANDOM WITHIN A BROAD TROUGH WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS BLOCKING 
SATELLITE VIEW.  MODEL GUIDANCE AND UPPER ENVIRONMENT IS 
FAVORABLE FOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION AND W-NW MOVEMENT.  
PRESENTLY CLOUD ORGANIZATION CONTINUES TO LOOK WEAK AND REMAINS 
AS MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF STRONG CONVECTION MOVING SLOWLY W. 
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT N OF CENTER RESULTS IN LARGE AREA FRESH 
WINDS WITHIN 330 NM OF CENTER.  TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION 
REMAINS A POSSIBILITY AS BROAD TROUGH MOVES INTO A LESS ADVERSE 
WINDS ALOFT. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE N OF 04N ALONG 96W MOVING W AT 20 KT OVER PAST 2 
DAYS HAS BEEN UNDER SLIGHTLY ADVERSE WINDS ALOFT WHICH ARE 
LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HR.  IF ITS PRESENT SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION...MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ...CAN 
SURVIVE TILL THEN WAVE COULD MAKE IT INTO A MORE FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION.   

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS 06N77W TO 11N110W TO 09N119W TO 11N124W THEN FROM 
08N128W TO 07N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N AND 240 NM S OF AXIS E OF 100W AND 
FROM 107W-120W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF 
AXIS W OF 128W. 

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N124W TO 09N140W...ACCOMPANIED 
BY DRY UPPER AIR...CONTINUES AS LARGEST FEATURE IN E PAC BASIN. 
DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE HAS RIDGE EXTENDING JUST N OF 
ITCZ AND EMBEDDED CYCLONIC SYSTEMS PROVIDING SLIGHTLY ADVERSE TO 
THE EASTERNMOST WAVE AND LOW PRES BUT SLIGHTLY FAVORING CARLOS 
MORE TO THE W. 

GAP WINDS...FRESH TRADES WITH SEAS TO 9 FT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 
TO SURGE THROUGH GULF OF PAPAGAYO TODAY...WEAKENING WED...THEN 
INCREASING TO STRONG AND EXPAND COVERAGE THU.

CROSS EQUATORIAL SE AND SW SWELLS WITH FRESH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL 
WIND FLOW RESULT IN SEAS TO 10 FT SPREADING N OVER WATERS S OF 
09N W OF GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. 

HIGH PRES N OF BASIN 1028 MB MOVES W PRESSING GRADIENT AND 
FORCING FRESH NW WINDS AGAINST BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST.  WINDS 
DIMINISH WITHIN 12 HR AND SWELLS BECOME UNDER 8 FT WITHIN 24 HR. 

$$
WALLY BARNES