000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140959
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE JUL 14 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM CARLOS IS LOCATED NEAR 09.7N 127.3W AT 14/0900 
UTC MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT 
WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES IS 994 
MB. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FLUCTUATE WITH A RECENT 
BURST WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER..AND MOST RECENTLY AN EYE... 
ABOUT 9 NM DIAMTER...HAS REAPPEARED. CARLOS IS EXPECTED REMAIN 
A SMALL BUT STRONG TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN 
INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN CARLOS IS EXPECTED TO 
WEAKEN AS HE ENCOUNTERS INCREASING NW VERTICAL SHEAR. REFER TO 
LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...TROPICAL LOW... 
THE SURFACE LOW PRES AT 13N110.5W 1008 MB CONTINUES MOVING W NW 
AT ABOUT 15 KT WITH INTERMITTANT CONVECTIVE BANDING WITHIN 60 NM 
OVER THE NE QUADRANT. AS AN UPPER CYCLONE TO THE N SHIFTS SW 
WITH TIME THE UPPER LEVEL LEVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME MORE 
FAVORABLE. IN FACT...THE ENVIRONMENT WITHIN ABOUT 400 NM OF THE 
CENTER...FROM 09N TO 15N BETWEEN 107W AND 119W...APPEARS TO BE 
ALREADY BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE AS SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY FLARING. THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT 
TO THE N OF THE CENTER IS RESULTING IN A LARGE AREA OF 20 TO 25 
KT WINDS WITHIN 330 NM OF THE CENTER. SINCE THE SURFACE LOW IS 
ALSO EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON FLOW...SW WINDS ARE ALREADY AT 15 
TO 20 KT WITHIN 330 NM OVER THE SE AND WITHIN 210 NM OF THE SW 
QUADRANTS PER A EARLY EVENING QUICK SCAT PASS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FORMATION IS POSSIBLE AS THIS LOW PRES MOVES W NW AT ABOUT 15 KT 
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE TO THE N OF 04N IS ALONG 94W HAS BEEN MOVING W 
AT 18 KT OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS. A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT OF THE ITCZ 
CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE WAVE AT 12N. 

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 06N77W TO 11N109W TO 09N113W TO 
TROPICAL STORM CARLOS AT 10N127W THEN EXTENDS SW TO 07N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N 
TO 09N E OF 100W AND ELSEWHERE FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 121W AND 
138W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE W PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA...N OF 10N W OF 125W...AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY DRY 
UPPER AIR. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER EXTREME 
NORTHERN OLD MEXICO NEAR 30N109W...AND HAS AN UPPER RIDGE 
EXTENDING SW TO A SHARP CREST AT 16N127W. TROPICAL CYCLONE 
CARLOS CONTINUES WESTWARD...BUT TO THE S OF THIS RIDGE. AN UPPER 
LEVEL CYCLONE NEAR 20N110W CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD ERODING 
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE N. UPPER 
DIFFLUENCE OVER THE E SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE IS ENHANCING 
CONVECTION OVER THE TROPICS BETWEEN 112W AND 102W...WITH THE 
RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE SPREADING N OVER OLD MEXICO S OF 23N. 

GAP WINDS...EASTERLY TRADES AT 15 TO 25 KT...WITH SEAS TO 9 
FT...ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SURGE THROUGH THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO FOR TODAY AND WED THEN INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT THU AND 
EXPAND COVERING THE PAC WATERS FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 86W AND 
90W.

CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHEASTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY SWELLS AND 
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AT 15 TO 20 KT WILL RESULT IN SEAS TO 
10 FT SPREADING N OVER THE WATERS S PF 09N W OF THE GALAPAGOS 
ISLANDS. 

$$
NELSON