000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140359
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE JUL 14 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM CARLOS LOCATED NEAR 99.7N 127.0W AT 14/0000 UTC 
MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 55 GUSTS 
TO 65 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES 994 MB. AN EYE-LIKE 
FEATURE APPEARED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS 
AFTERNOON BUT HAS SINCE BEEN PARTIALLY COVERED BY CENTRAL DENSE 
OVERCAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS CARLOS AS A SMALL TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 
HOURS...WEAKENING THEREAFTER DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. 
REFER TO LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...TROPICAL LOW... 
SURFACE LOW PRES 1008 MB NEAR 12N110W WITH INCREASING CONVECTION 
PARTICULARLY WITHIN 240 NM E SEMICIRCLE. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN 
ALOFT IS HELPING TO INDUCE THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. TIGHT PRES 
GRADIENT TO THE N OF THE CENTER IS RESULTING IN A LARGE AREA OF 
20 TO 25 KT WINDS WITHIN 300 NM N SEMICIRCLE WITH BUILDING SEAS 
TO 9 FT. THE LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON FLOW WITH SW WINDS 
AT 15 TO 20 KT WITHIN 180 NM OVER THE S SEMICIRCLE. TROPICAL 
CYCLONE FORMATION IS POSSIBLE AS THIS LOW PRES MOVES W-NW AT 
ABOUT 15 KT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 91W TO 92W N OF 04N TO NEAR THE 
GUATEMALA AND MEXICO BORDER MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FOUND NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF 
THE WAVE WITH THE ITCZ AXIS. 

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 06N78W TO 11N107W TO 10N122W TO 08N130W 
TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
NOTED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS E OF 90W. 
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 105W AND 107W. 

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE NW PORTION OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 15N W OF 125 AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY DRY 
UPPER AIR. A LARGE ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER NW MEXICO NEAR 
30N108W EXTENDING A RIDGE SW TO JUST N OF T.S. CARLOS. FARTHER 
TO THE SOUTH...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING NEAR 18N110W. 
BROAD UPPER RIDGING IS NOTED SE OF THIS CYCLONE OVER THE DEEP 
TROPICS COVERING CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE E PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA E OF 100W. THIS RIDGE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION 
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...AND ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS.

GAP WINDS...N WINDS AT 20 KT CONTINUE TO SURGE THROUGH THE 
CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND ARE EXPECTED TO 
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT LATE TONIGHT. EASTERLY TRADES AT 15 
TO 25 KT...SEAS TO 9 FT...ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SURGE 
THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO FOR THE NEXT DAYS. 

CROSS EQUATORIAL SE SWELLS TO 8 FT ARE AFFECTING THE WATERS S OF 
04N W OF 95W. SW SWELLS WILL ALSO PUSH N TO THE EQUATOR TONIGHT 
AND WILL MIX WITH SE SWELL TRAIN OVER ALL THE WATERS S OF 06N TO 
THE W OF 95W BY TUE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ON 
WED. 

$$
GR