000
AXPZ20 KNHC 132203
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JUL 13 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM CARLOS LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 126.1W AT 13/2100 UTC 
MOVING W-SW OR 255 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 55 GUSTS 
TO 65 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES 994 MB. AN EYE-LIKE 
FEATURE APPEARED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS 
AFTERNOON BUT HAS SINCE BEEN PARTIALLY COVERED BY A SMALL 
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS CARLOS AS A 
SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY FOR THE 
NEXT 72 HOURS...THEN WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO INCREASING 
VERTICAL SHEAR. REFER TO LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...TROPICAL LOW... 
SURFACE LOW PRES 1009 MB NEAR 11N107W WITH INCREASING CONVECTION 
PARTICULARLY WITHIN 300 NM E AND 180 NM W SEMICIRCLES. UPPER 
DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. A QSCAT PASS 
FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS 
WITHIN 300 NM N SEMICIRCLE WITH BUILDING SEAS TO 9 FT. THE LOW 
IS IN THE MONSOON FLOW WITH SW WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT WITHIN 240 
NM OVER THE S SEMICIRCLE. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS POSSIBLE 
AS THIS LOW PRES MOVES W-NW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 07N78W TO 11N105W TO 08N115W TO 10N121W 
TO 08N130W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NOTED N OF 05N E OF 82W...AND FROM 09N TO 13N 
BETWEEN 92W AND 97W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N 
TO 10N BETWEEN 110W AND 118W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN 
BE FOUND WITHIN 100 NM N OF AXIS W OF 132W. 

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE NW PORTION OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 15N W OF 125 AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY DRY 
UPPER AIR. A LARGE ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER NW MEXICO NEAR 
29N107W EXTENDING A RIDGE SW TO JUST N OF T.S. CARLOS. FARTHER 
TO THE SOUTH...THERE IS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 18N108W. BROAD 
UPPER RIDGING...ANCHORED ON A HIGH NEAR 15N97W...IS NOTED SE OF 
THIS CYCLONE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AND IS ENHANCING CONVECTION 
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS.

GAP WINDS...N WINDS AT 20 KT CONTINUE TO SURGE THROUGH THE 
CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND ARE EXPECTED TO 
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT LATE TONIGHT. EASTERLY TRADES AT 15 
TO 25 KT...SEAS TO 9 FT...ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SURGE 
THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO FOR THE NEXT DAYS. 

CROSS EQUATORIAL SE SWELLS TO 8 FT ARE AFFECTING THE WATERS S OF 
04N W OF 104W. SW SWELLS WILL ALSO PUSH N TO THE EQUATOR TONIGHT 
AND WILL MIX WITH SE SWELL TRAIN OVER ALL THE WATERS S OF 06N TO 
THE W OF 96W BY TUE...RAISING SEAS UP TO 10 FT BY WED. 


$$
GR