000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131610
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JUL 13 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM CARLOS AT 9.6N 125.3 AT 13/1500 UTC MOVING W OR 
260 DEG AT 12 KT.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 45 GUSTS TO 55 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES 997 MB.  ALTHOUGH CARLOS CONTINUE 
UNDER LESS FAVORABLE WINDS ALOFT AND HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY LAST 
12-24 HR...IT IS APPROACHING BETTER CONDITIONS WHICH COULD HOLD 
OR EVEN INTENSIFY IT MORE SINCE IT REMAINS OVER WARM WATERS. 
CARLOS CARRIES NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION CLUSTERED WITHIN 90 NM 
OF ITS CENTER PLUS SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM IN S SEMICIRCLE.  REFER TO LATEST NHC 
FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...TROPICAL LOW... 
SURFACE LOW PRES 1009 MB NEAR 11N107W WITH INCREASING CONVECTION 
WITHIN 240 NM OF ELLIPSE ORIENTED NE-SW FROM 13N106W TO 10N110W. 
PRES GRADIENT SQUEEZED N SEMICIRCLE WITH STRONG BREEZE ALONG 
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT.  TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION POSSIBLE 
AS IT MOVES INTO A MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT NEXT FEW DAYS.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 07N77W TO 12N102W TO 08N114W TO 09N128W TO 
07N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 06N-08N W OF 
82W AND WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS FROM 110W-118W.  ISOLATED MODERATE 
W OF 128W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FROM 32N130W TO 11N140W DOMINATES 
DISCUSSION AREA N OF 10N W OF 124W WITH DRY AIR ALOFT.  LARGE 
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER NRN MEXICO MAINTAIN CONFLUENT FLOW 
OVER MOST OD E PAC N OF 15N.  WEAK UPPER CYCLONE QT 17N107W  
ERODING SRN PORTION OF RIDGE ENHANCING SURFACE LOW PRES AT 
11N107W BY PROVIDING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.

GAP WINDS...STRONG N WINDS CONTINUE TO SURGE THROUGH GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT TONIGHT.  FRESH E 
TRADES WITH 9 FT SEAS CONTINUE TO SURGE THROUGH GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
FOR NEXT DAYS. 

CROSS EQUATORIAL SE SWELLS TO 8 FT OVER WATERS S OF 03N BETWEEN 
100W AND 127W.  SW SWELLS ALSO PUSH N TO EQUATOR TONIGHT AND MIX 
WITH SE SWELL TRAIN OVER ALL WATERS S OF 08N W OF 90W WED.

$$
WALLY BARNES