000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130354
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JUL 13 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
AT 0300 UTC...TROPICAL STORM CARLOS IS CENTERED NEAR 10.2N 
123.0W MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 10 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 
ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 994 MB. CONVECTION IS AGAIN ON THE INCREASE NEAR THE 
CENTER WITH A CDO-LIKE FEATURE DEVELOPING. ALTHOUGH CARLOS 
WEAKENED DURING THE DAY TODAY THE FORECAST CALLS FOR 
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT CONTINUES MOVING 
WESTWARD OVER WARM WATERS AND IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. REFER 
TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN 
EXTENDS S INTO THE EPAC ACROSS COSTA RICA. ITS AXIS IS ALONG 85W 
N OF 4N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR THE SOUTHERN 
END OF THE WAVE AXIS. 

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS 08N 78W TO 10N104W TO 11N120W TO 07N130W 
TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED 
FROM 06N TO 14N BETWEEN 100W AND 111W AND FROM 07N TO 11N 
BETWEEN 126W AND 136W. 

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA. ITS MEAN AXIS IS N OF 17 ALONG 128/130W. A PLUME OF 
MOISTURE IS NOTED JUST AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH N OF 25N. AN 
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF BLANCA...EXTENDS FROM 
24N128W TO 28N127W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND 
THE SURFACE RIDGE...THAT COVERS THE NW WATERS...CONTINUES TO 
SUPPORT NE WINDS TO 20 KT BUT THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
DIMINISH AS THE TROUGH DRIFTS W AND WEAKENS BY TUESDAY.

A LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS HAS A RIDGE 
EXTENDING SW THROUGH ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE COAST OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA THEN CONTINUES SW TO THE NORTH OF T.S. CARLOS. THE 
DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM CARLOS IS PULLING NWD BETWEEN THE UPPER- 
TROUGH AND THE ANTICYCLONE. 

BROAD UPPER RIDGING...ANCHORED ON A HIGH OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN  
 IS NOTED OVER THE TROPICS TO THE E OF 95W AND HAS BEEN 
ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND ALONG THE ITCZ. AN 
UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING NEAR ACAPULCO MEXICO ENHANCING 
CONVECTION BETWEEN GUERRERO AND JALISCO. 

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES...ANALYZED 1009 MB NEAR 11N104W...IS 
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.   
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS 
SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST OR 
WEST-NORTHWEST. 

GAP WINDS...N WINDS AT 20 KT HAVE SURGED THROUGH THE CHIVELA 
PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO 
SURGE THROUGH LATE MON THEN DIMINISH. E TRADES OF 20 KT ARE 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SURGE THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO FOR 
THE NEXT DAYS...OCCASIONALLY REACHING 25 KT AT TIMES. NW WINDS 
15 TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE W COAST OF THE 
BAJA PENINSULA FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS.

$$
GR