000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121544
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN JUL 12 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
HURRICANE CARLOS IS CENTERED NEAR 10.4N 121.0W AT 12/1500 UTC IS 
MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 11 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 
NOW 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 984 MB. CARLOS HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY AND THE OVERALL 
ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM IS LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN SIX HOURS AGO 
WITH A BROAD RAGGED EYEWALL NOTED IN THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES. 
BURSTS OF STRONG CONVECTION ARE NOTED WITHIN 75 AND 60 NM IN THE 
S AND N SEMICIRCLES RESPECTIVELY. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED MODERATE 
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED IN A LARGE FEEDER BAND 
WITHIN 300 NM OVER THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF CARLOS. CARLOS IS STILL 
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT CONTINUES 
MOVING WESTWARD OVER WARM WATERS AND IN A LOW SHEAR 
ENVIRONMENT. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 04N TO 17N ALONG 106W AND HAS 
BEEN MOVING W AT ABOUT 12 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED 
MODERATE AND ISOLATED CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 240 NM OF THE 
WAVE AXIS. BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS 
AND A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 
HOURS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR THIS LOW TO DEVELOP INTO 
A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N81W TO 10N102W TO 08N110W TO 
11N117W TO 06N130W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG FROM 06N TO 14N BETWEEN 98W AND 115W AND WITHIN 90 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 127W AND 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
WITHIN 60-90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 79W AND 83W...AND BETWEEN 90W 
AND 96W.

...DISCUSSION...
A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 
120W WITH ITS MEAN AXIS N OF 14N ALONG 129/130W. AN EMBEDDED MID 
TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 30N126W AND IS LIFTING 
OUT TO THE NE. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N127W 
TO 30N127W...WHICH WAS THE REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 
BLANCA. MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM FORMER CONVECTION IS STILL NOTED 
ALONG A PLUME WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 26N129W TO 
32N126W WHERE THE MOISTURE TURNS NE EVENTUALLY CROSSING OVER 
CALIFORNIA. THE GRADIENT NW OF THE REMNANT LOW CONTINUES TO 
SUPPORT NE WINDS TO 20 KT BUT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THE TROUGH 
WEAKENS AND DRIFTS W AND DISSIPATES BY TUESDAY.

A LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN TEXAS HAS A RIDGE 
EXTENDING SW THROUGH ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE COAST OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA THE CONTINUES SW TO THE NORTH OF HURRICANE CARLOS TO 
A CREST AT 11N125W. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM CARLOS IS REMAINING 
OVER THE AREA FROM 05N TO 17N BETWEEN 115W AND 125W AS THE UPPER 
LEVELS APPEAR VERY DRY ELSEWHERE N OF THE ITCZ W OF 115W.

BROAD UPPER RIDGING IS NOTED OVER THE TROPICS TO THE E OF 113W 
AND HAS BEEN ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND ALONG 
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 112W AN 90W. THE RESULTANT UPPER DEBRIS 
MOISTURE COVERS THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE PACIFIC E OF 110W.

GAP WINDS...N WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KT HAVE SURGED THROUGH THE 
CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE TO SURGE THROUGH LATE MON THEN DIMINISH. E TRADES OF
20 KT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SURGE THROUGH THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO FOR THE NEXT DAYS...OCCASIONALLY REACHING 25 KT AT 
TIMES. NW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE W 
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS.

$$
COBB