000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120950
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN JUL 12 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
HURRICANE CARLOS IS CENTERED NEAR 10.5N 120W AT 12/0900 UTC IS 
MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 10 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 75 
KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 
IS 980 MB. CARLOS HAS LOST THE EYE THAT WAS APPARENT A FEW HOURS 
AGO AS NUMEROUS STRONG TSTMS HAVE BURST WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER. 
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED IN A 
LARGE FEEDER BAND WITHIN 300 NM OVER THE W SEMICIRCLE OF CARLOS. 
CARLOS IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A 100 KT HURRICANE MON AND 
MON NIGHT THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS HE MOVES OVER COOLER SEA 
SURFACE WATERS AND INCREASING WESTERLY WIND SHEAR ALOFT. REFER 
TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 04N TO 17N ALONG 105W AND HAS 
BEEN MOVING W AT ABOUT 12 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED 
MODERATE AND ISOLATED CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE 
WAVE AXIS. BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED AROUND THE WAVE AND A 
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM LATER TODAY. THE ENVIRONMENT IS 
FAVORABLE FOR THIS LOW TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER 
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO 10N107W TO 08N110W TO 
09N123W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 15N BETWEEN 95W AND 113W AND 
ALSO WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N127W TO 05N139W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 
120W WITH ITS MEAN AXIS N OF 14N ALONG 131W. AN EMBEDDED DEEP 
LAYERED CYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 29N127W AND IS LIFTING OUT TO 
THE NE. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL 
CYCLONE BLANCA...AND IS ESTIMATED NEAR 28N128W AND HAS WEAKENED 
TO 1014 MB. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM FORMER CONVECTION IS STILL 
NOTED ALONG A PLUME WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 24N129W TO 
32N127W WHERE THE MOISTURE TURNS NE EVENTUALLY CROSSING OVER 
CALIFORNIA. THE GRADIENT NW OF THE REMNANT LOW CONTINUES TO 
SUPPORT NE WINDS TO 20 KT BUT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THE 
REMNANT LOW WEAKENS TO AN OPEN TROUGH TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY 
DRIFTS W AND DISSIPATES BY MID WEEK. 

A LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA BORDER 
HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING SW OVER CARLOS TO A CREST AT 11N125W. THE 
DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM CARLOS IS REMAINING OVER THE AREA FROM 05N 
TO 17N BETWEEN 115W AND 125W AS THE UPPER LEVELS APPEAR VERY DRY 
ELSEWHERE N OF THE ITCZ W OF 115W.

BROAD UPPER RIDGING IS NOTED OVER THE TROPICS TO THE E OF 113W 
AND HAS BEEN ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND ALONG 
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 112W AN 90W. THE RESULTANT UPPER DEBRIS 
MOISTURE COVERS THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE PACIFIC E OF 110W.

GAP WINDS...N WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KT HAVE SURGED THROUGH THE 
CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE TO SURGE THROUGH MID DAY MON THEN DIMINISH. E TRADES 1T 
15 TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SURGE THROUGH THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO FOR THE NEXT DAYS. NW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED 
TO CONTINUE ALONG THE W COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FOR A COUPLE 
MORE DAYS.

$$
NELSON