000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120355
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN JUL 12 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
HURRICANE CARLOS CENTERED NEAR 10.5N 119.0W AT 12/0300 UTC IS 
MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 11 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 
75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 980 MB. INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER 
THE PAST FEW HOURS INDICATES THAT CARLOS EYE HAS BECOME MORE 
WELL-DEFINED...A STRENGTHENING HURRICANE. NUMEROUS MODERATE 
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IN EYEWALL WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER.  
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG IN BANDING FEATURES WITHIN 
240 NM OF CENTER. CARLOS MAY INTENSIFY TO A MAJOR HURRICANE IN 
THE NEXT DAY. IT IS EXPECTED THAT CARLOS WILL REMAIN A HURRICANE 
WHILE TRACKING WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. REFER TO THE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/ 
WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 05N TO 15N ALONG 105W AND IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING W AT 8-10 KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 06N TO 14N BETWEEN 100W AND 106W.  A BROAD 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS APPARENT FROM THE VISIBLE SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AS WELL AS AN ASCAT PASS...WITH A POSSIBLE MID-LEVEL 
CENTER NEAR 09N101W. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ALSO 
INDICATES A MAXIMUM IN MOISTURE TO THE EAST SIDE OF THE WAVE 
AXIS. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SOME MODEST DEVELOPMENT OF THIS 
INTO A LOW IN ABOUT TWO DAYS. AN AREA OF 20 KT E WINDS WERE THUS 
INCLUDED INTO THE 48 HOUR FORECAST BETWEEN 105W AND 113W.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N78W TO 10N100W TO 08N110W TO 
09N114W TO 06N131W TO 07N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF 
THE AXIS BETWEEN 132W AND 137W.  

...DISCUSSION...
TODAY CONTINUES AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH HURRICANE CARLOS 
...THE REMNANTS OF BLANCA...AND INCREASED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY 
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 105W.  EX-BLANCA NEAR 26N127W 
CONTRIBUTES TOWARD A GENERAL DIMINISHING OF THE TRADEWINDS 
STRENGTH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS CYCLONE STILL RETAINS A 
LARGE...BUT RELATIVELY WEAK...WIND FIELD AS DEPICTED BY THE 
1838Z ASCAT WITH WINDS 20 KT EXTENDING ABOUT 240 NM IN THE 
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SPIN 
DOWN AND OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH WITHIN ABOUT 36 HOURS.

GAP WINDS...FRESH E TRADE WINDS OF 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO 
SURGE THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. 

GAP WINDS...A WEAK TEHUANTEPEC EVENT MAY ONSET SHORTLY...WITH 
WINDS AROUND 20 KT...BUT SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.  THE FORCING FOR 
THIS APPEARS TO BE THE MODERATELY STRONG SURFACE HIGH IN THE 
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.  BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW A 
SIMILAR EVOLUTION FOR THIS EVENT...WHICH WOULD LIKELY RELAX IN 
ABOUT THREE DAYS.

THE GRADUALLY BUILDING EASTWARD SURFACE RIDGE WEST OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA COMBINED WITH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA HEAT LOW MAY 
BRING 20 KT NW WINDS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA OVER THE NEXT 
TWO DAYS.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH WEST OF THE NW 
UNITED STATES IS ADVECTING SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM 
EX-BLANCA NORTHEASTWARD INTO CALIFORNIA.  THIS WILL LIKELY 
DIMINISH IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS 
SOUTHWARD ALONG 130W DOWN TO 12N...WHICH IS PROVIDING AN OUTFLOW 
CHANNEL ON THE NW SIDE OF HURRICANE CARLOS.  THE REMAINDER OF 
THE NE PACIFIC EAST OF 110W HAS MODERATE TO WEAK EAST TO 
NORTHEAST FLOW PRODUCED BY AN UPPER RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.

$$
LANDSEA