000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112212
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT JUL 11 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
HURRICANE CARLOS CENTERED NEAR 10.5N 117.7W AT 11/2100 UTC IS 
MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 10 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 70 
KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 
IS 984 MB. INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST 
FEW HOURS INDICATES THAT A BANDING EYE IS FORMING.  NUMEROUS 
MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IN BANDING FEATURES WITHIN 
180 NM OF CENTER.  CARLOS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE 
WHILE TRACKING WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. REFER TO THE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 05N TO 16N ALONG 103W AND IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING W AT 10 KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 06N TO 15N BETWEEN 98W AND 103W.  A BROAD 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS APPARENT FROM THE VISIBLE SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AS WELL AS TWO ASCAT PASSES...WITH A POSSIBLE MID-LEVEL 
CENTER NEAR 10N102W.  THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ALSO 
INDICATES A MAXIMUM IN MOISTURE TO THE EAST SIDE OF THE WAVE 
AXIS.  THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SOME MODEST DEVELOPMENT OF THIS 
INTO A LOW IN ABOUT TWO DAYS.  AN AREA OF 20 KT E WINDS WERE 
THUS INTRODUCED INTO THE 48 HOUR FORECAST BETWEEN 100 AND 110W.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 06N83W TO 10N98W TO 12N113W 
TO 07N32W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 
120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 95W AND 100W.  

...DISCUSSION...
TODAY CONTINUES AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH HURRICANE CARLOS 
...THE REMNANTS OF BLANCA...AND INCREASED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY 
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 103W.  EX-BLANCA NEAR 26N127W 
CONTRIBUTES TOWARD A GENERAL DIMINISHING OF THE TRADEWINDS 
STRENGTH ACROSS THE REGION.  THIS CYCLONE STILL RETAINS A 
LARGE...BUT RELATIVELY WEAK...WIND FIELD AS DEPICTED BY THE 
1838Z ASCAT WITH WINDS 20 KT EXTENDING ABOUT 240 NM IN THE 
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SPIN 
DOWN AND OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH WITHIN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS.

GAP WINDS...FRESH E TRADE WINDS OF 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO 
SURGE THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 

THE GRADUALLY BUILDING EASTWARD SURFACE RIDGE WEST OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA COMBINED WITH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA HEAT LOW MAY 
BRING 20 KT NW WINDS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA OVER THE NEXT 
TWO DAYS.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH WEST OF THE NW 
UNITED STATES IS ADVECTING SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM 
EX-BLANCA NORTHEASTWARD INTO CALIFORNIA.  THIS WILL LIKELY 
DIMINISH IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS 
SOUTHWARD ALONG 130W DOWN TO 12N...WHICH IS PROVIDING AN OUTFLOW 
CHANNEL ON THE NW SIDE OF HURRICANE CARLOS.  THE REMAINDER OF 
THE NE PACIFIC EAST OF 110W HAS MODERATE TO WEAK EAST TO 
NORTHEAST FLOW PRODUCED BY AN UPPER RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.

$$
LANDSEA