000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110958
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT JUL 11 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM CARLOS CENTERED NEAR 10.5N 116.3W AT 11/0900 UTC 
IS MOVING W OR 275 DEG AT 11 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 
55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 994 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE LINE FROM 13N118W TO 08N111W 
WITH BANDING FEATURES BOTH NW AND SE OF CENTER. CARLOS IS 
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE LATER TODAY AND REMAIN A 
HURRICANE WHILE TRACKING WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. REFER 
TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED N OF 04N ALONG 100W AND IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE MOVING W AT 15 KT. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO 
FLARE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS N OF 12N TO THE COAST OF MEXICO. 
SLIGHT CYCLONIC TURNING WAS NOTED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS LATE FRI 
NIGHT.  

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N78W TO 11N99W TO 10N110W TO 
06N123W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 05N TO 11N TO THE E OF 102W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCASIONALLY FLARING WITHIN 60 
NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 05N103.5W TO 08N111W WHERE CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM CARLOS IS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...
AN BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA WITH ITS MEAN AXIS N OF 10N ALONG 130W. AN 
EMBEDDED DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 27N128W WITH THE 
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW BEING THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 
BLANCA. DEBRIS MOISTURE...FROM FORMER CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 22N130W TO 32N128W WHERE THE MOISTURE 
TURNS NE EVENTUALLY CROSSING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE 
GRADIENT NW OF THE REMNANT LOW CONTINUES TO SUPPORT NE WINDS AT 
20 TO 25 KT BUT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THE REMNANT LOW 
GRADUALLY DRIFTS W AND DISSIPATES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 

A SECOND UPPER TROUGH IS NOTED ALONG THE W COAST OF THE BAJA 
PENINSULA BUT APPEARS TO BE FILLING. A LARGE ANTICYCLONE 
CENTERED OVER TEXAS HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING SW ALONG 22N108W AND  
OVER TROPICAL STORM CARLOS TO A CREST AT 09N124W. THE DEBRIS 
MOISTURE FROM CARLOS IS REMAINING OVER THE AREA FROM 04N TO 15N 
BETWEEN 112W AND 120W. BROAD UPPER RIDGING IS NOTED OVER THE 
TROPICS TO THE E OF 105W AND HAS BEEN ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG 
THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COASTS AND ALONG THE ITCZ TO THE E OF 
TROPICAL STORM CARLOS. THE RESULTANT UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE 
COVERS THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE PACIFIC E OF 108W.

GAP WINDS...FRESH E TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE THROUGH 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO FOR THE NEXT DAYS. 

$$
NELSON