000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110400
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT JUL 11 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM CARLOS CENTERED NEAR 10.5N 115.1W AT 11/0300 UTC 
MOVING W OR 275 DEG AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 
IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG IN BANDING FEATURES WITHIN 
150 NM W AND WITHIN 120 NM E SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER.  CARLOS 
CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE EVENING...AND 
THE FORECAST CALLS FOR INTENSIFICATION DUE TO A LIGHT SHEAR 
ENVIRONMENT AND WARM SSTS. THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO 
BECOME A HURRICANE IN ABOUT A DAY. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 100W FROM 04N TO 15N MOVING W AT ABOUT 
10 KT. THE WAVE IS IDENTIFIABLE FROM A MAXIMUM IN THE TOTAL 
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...AS WELL AS ENHANCED DEEP 
CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY...AN EARLIER ASCAT SHOWED SOME CYCLONIC 
FLOW...THOUGH THIS MAY BE REFLECTIVE OF THE BROADER MONSOONAL 
FLOW IN WHICH THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 180 NM EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG AXIS FROM 09N78W TO 10N97W TO 10N110W TO
07N126W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 
NM OF THE AXIS FROM 78W TO 88W AND WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS 
FROM 96W TO 107W.  

...DISCUSSION...
THE TROPICAL NE PACIFIC IS DOMINATED BY TWO TROPICAL SYSTEMS... 
INTENSIFYING TROPICAL STORM CARLOS AND THE REMNANT LOW OF 
BLANCA...AS WELL AS AN ACTIVE ITCZ TO THE EAST OF CARLOS. WITH 
THE REMNANTS OF BLANCA...NEAR 25N127W...WEAKENING THE SURFACE 
RIDGE...THE TRADEWINDS NORTH OF THE ITCZ ARE WEAKER THAN USUAL.  
SOUTH OF THE ITCZ...MONSOONAL SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS EXTEND 
FROM THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA OUT TO ABOUT 110W.  

THE REMNANT LOW OF BLANCA CONTINUES TO HAVE A LARGE AND 
WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION...BUT LITTLE TO NO DEEP 
CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING WITHIN 240 NM 
IN THE N SEMICIRCLE.  A 19Z ASCAT PASS INDICATES THAT 20-25 KT 
WINDS ARE OCCURRING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CYCLONE.  BECAUSE 
OF THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF THE CYCLONE...WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8-12 
FT ARE STILL PRESENT IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WITHIN ABOUT 300 
NM.

THE COMBINATION OF A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF 
MEXICO AND A SURFACE RIDGE TO THE E OF EX-BLANCA IS EXPECTED TO 
PRODUCE NW WINDS TO 20 KT N OF 24N WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

GAP WINDS...FRESH E TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OCCASIONALLY SURGE 
THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 

$$
LANDSEA