000
AXPZ20 KNHC 102212
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI JUL 10 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM CARLOS CENTERED NEAR 10.3N 113.9W AT 10/2100 UTC 
MOVING W OR 275 DEG AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 
KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 
1005 MB. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG IN BANDING FEATURES WITHIN 180 NM W AND 
WITHIN 120 NM E SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER.  THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME 
BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE DAY...AND THE FORECAST CALLS FOR 
INTENSIFICATION DUE TO A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND WARM SSTS. 
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 3 
DAYS. 

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG AXIS FROM 08N78W TO 11N95W TO 06N120W 
09N135W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 
120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 78W TO 90W AND WITHIN 180 NM OF THE AXIS 
FROM 95W TO 110W.  

...DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE W PART OF THE FORECAST 
AREA WITH AXIS ALONG 130W WHILE A RIDGE ANCHORED ON A HIGH 
CENTERED OVER WESTERN TEXAS COVERS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA 
AND THE FAR NE WATERS. FARTHER SOUTH...THERE IS AN UPPER-LEVEL 
HIGH LOCATED NW OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOS NEAR 14N116W. THE 
ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION AROUND THE 
TROPICAL STORM. BROAD UPPER RIDGING IS NOTED OVER THE TROPICS TO 
THE E OF 104W AND HAS BEEN ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ 
AND NEAR THE COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND MEXICO. 

THE REMNANT LOW OF BLANCA CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE NORTH WATERS 
WITH LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NW OF ITS LOW LEVEL 
CENTER. THE SYSTEM LIES IN A REGION OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW 
ALOFT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL 
TROUGH. AN EARLIER QSCAT PASS SHOWED AN AREA OF NE WINDS 20 TO 
25 KT WITHIN 150 NM NW SEMICIRCLE OF LOW CENTER. THIS AREA OF OF 
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS EXTENDS WWD MAINLY N OF 24N AND W OF 121W 
DUE TO THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE REMNANTS OF BLANCA AND A 
SURFACE RIDGE THAT COVERS THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST REGION. 
LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS AS WHAT IF LEFT OF BLANCA CONTINUES ON ITS NW PATH NEAR 10 
KT.

THE COMBINATION OF A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF 
MEXICO AND A SURFACE RIDGE TO THE E OF BLANCA IS EXPECTED TO 
PRODUCE NW WINDS TO 20 KT N OF 24N WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

GAP WINDS...FRESH E TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OCCASIONALLY SURGE 
THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 

$$
GR/CWL