000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060918
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON JUL 06 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW THAT HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF DEVELOPING 
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 16N111W MOVING W 10-15 
KT. THE LOW IS MUCH MORE ORGANIZED THEN YESTERDAY. SCATTERED TO 
NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 90 NW OF E SEMICIRCLE AND 130 NM E 
SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 14N-18N 
BETWEEN 106W-111W.

...TROPICAL WAVE...
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE FAR E PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS 
ALONG 84W N OF 4N TO COSTA RICA MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 2N-14N ALONG 101W MOVING W AT 15 KT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG THE WAVE N OF 4N.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 8N78W 6N100W 9N120W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS FROM 89W-93W AND 
WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS FROM 94W-100W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 109W-113W.

...DISCUSSION...
A BROAD ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS 
CENTERED NEAR 28N125W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING E TO THE COAST BAJA 
CALIFORNIA NEAR 30N115W...ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDS SE OF THE 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO 24N140W. SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS 
MOVING THROUGH THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE OVER THE FAR NW 
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...OTHERWISE MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF 
THE ATMOSPHERE IS N OF 15N W OF 120W. TO THE S OF THE 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH FROM 
20N120W TO 12N129W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR THE BIG BEND OF TEXAS NEAR 
28N102W.

ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE IS S OF 22N E OF 115W WITH BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. 
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
OVER MEXICO AND AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE 
WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING STRONG CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG 
THE ITCZ E OF 110W. THE DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW MAY ALSO HELP IN 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW NEAR 16N111W.

SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED N OF THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM 15N136W 
TO 10N135W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS S OF 13N. 
SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM 32N135N TO 24N121W. BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BLANKET THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 
120W.

LARGE SWELL FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE CONTINUES TO CROSS THE 
EQUATOR OVER THE S PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.

$$
DGS