000 AXPZ20 KNHC 051525 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SUN JUL 05 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 300 NM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED CENTER IN THE VICINITY OF 17N109W MOVING WNW AT 10-15 KT. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN BANDS WITH THE MAIN CONVECTIVE AREA S OF THE CENTER FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 108W AND 111W. NARROWER BANDS HAVE BEEN FILLING IN WITHIN 240 NM N OF THE CENTER. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES 20-25 KT WINDS WITHIN 300 NM OVER THE NE QUADRANT...IN AGREEMENT WITH A SHIP OBSERVATION...BUILDING SEAS TO 11 FT. WINDS APPEAR TO BE LIGHTER OVER THE REMAINING QUADRANTS ESPECIALLY SW OF THE CENTER. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT CONTINUES ITS WNW MOTION. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE HAS JUST ENTERED THE EXTREME EASTERN PACIFIC ALONG 78W N OF 03N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THIS WAVE LIES WITHIN AN UPPER DIFFLUENT ZONE BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND BROAD RIDGING. THIS UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN. LOW-LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENT IS ALSO ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE FROM 05N TO 09N E OF 89W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 96W FROM 03N TO 15N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THIS POSITION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY AS THERE IS NOT ANY OBVIOUS EVIDENCE OF THE FEATURE IN THE AVAILABLE DATA. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 08N82W 07N98W 13N105W 14N113W 09N125W 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 09N E OF 89W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 95W AND 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 119W AND 121W. ...DISCUSSION... S OF 20N... THE SPECIAL FEATURE IS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GFS/UKMET GENERALLY WEAKEN THIS SYSTEM OR KEEP IT AT THE SAME INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE ECMWF AND CMC SHOW SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING. INCREASED WINDS AND SEAS IN LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST...GIVEN THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF THE LOW...IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS. A WEAK TROUGH ALONG 134W IS PRODUCING LITTLE SIGNIFICANT SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY BUT IS ENHANCING NE TRADES TO NEAR 20 KT W OF THE AXIS. NE 20 KT TRADES WILL BE CONFINED TO A SMALL REGION W OF 130-135W OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE PRESSURE PATTERN HOLDS. SW SWELL OF 15-17 SECONDS IS ELEVATING SEAS OVER 8 FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA S OF 12N BETWEEN 90W AND 125W. THIS SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THIS GENERAL REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NO HELP FROM SCATTEROMETER DATA SO FAR TODAY AS ASCAT MISSED THE AREA AND QUIKSCAT DATA IS AT THE EDGE OF SWATH...SO INFORMATION MAY NOT BE VERY RELIABLE. BASED ON A SHIP REPORT OF 15 KT NEAR 10N89W AND MODEL GUIDANCE ITS LIKELY THAT THE EVENT IS PAST PEAK. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW 20 KT WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS THE CARIBBEAN TRADES WEAKEN. N OF 20N... DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL OVER THE SUBTROPICAL REGION WITH THE MID-UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N123W AND THE 1020 MB SFC CENTER NEAR 29N129W. THIS PATTERN IS ALLOWING FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE SFC WINDS ACROSS THE ZONE...EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONALLY SURGES TO NEAR 20 KT NEAR THE N BAJA COAST ENHANCED BY THE LOCAL TERRAIN. ABUNDANT STABLE AIR IS PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA AND LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. $$ CANGIALOSI