000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050916
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN JUL 05 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW THAT HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF DEVELOPING 
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 16N107W. THE LOW IS 
DISORGANIZED WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR THE 
CENTER...WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION WELL TO THE E OF THE LOW 
CENTER FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 101W AND 103W.

...TROPICAL WAVE...
TROPICAL WAVE N OF 4N ALONG 91W MOVING W AT 15 KT. EARLIER 
STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE WAVE JUST N OF THE ITCZ HAS 
DECREASED.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 8N78W 8N95W 14N109W 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 200 NM S OF AXIS FROM 96W-110W.

...DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED JUST 
OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 27N116W. A RIDGE 
EXTENDS E OF THE ANTICYLONE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO TO THE BIG BEND 
OF TEXAS...ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDS SE OF THE ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION TO 25N140W. SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING 
THROUGH THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA...OTHERWISE MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE 
ATMOSPHERE IS N OF 15N W OF 125W AND N OF 20N BETWEEN 115W-125W.

ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE IS E OF 110W WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. UPPER 
LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND AN 
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS 
ENHANCING STRONG CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE ITCZ E OF 110W.
THE DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW MAY ALSO HELP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
LOW NEAR 16N107W.

SURFACE LOW...1010 MB...IS ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 9N123W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM W OF THE CENTER. SURFACE
TROUGH IS N OF THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM 16N132W TO 10N131W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS S OF 12N. SURFACE 
RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM 32N138N TO 25N118W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BLANKET THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 115W.

LARGE SWELL FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE CONTINUES TO CROSS THE 
EQUATOR OVER THE S PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.

$$
DGS