000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040918
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT JUL 04 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE FAR ERN PACIFIC N OF 4N ALONG 86W MOVING 
W AT 15 KT. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE 
ACTIVITY WITH THE WAVE OVER COSTA RICA AND FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN
83W-86W.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 8N-16N ALONG 117W MOVING W 10-15 KT. ISOLATED 
SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE WAVE...HOWEVER MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE 
ACTIVITY IS ALONG THE ITCZ.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 7N78W 12N100W 5N110W 11N120W 5N140W. SCATTERED 
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 5N-9N E OF 86W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 
96W-100W AND WITHIN 150 NM S OF AXIS FROM 106W-116W.


...DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION ALONG THE BORDER OF MEXICO AND TEXAS CENTERED NEAR 
30N104W SW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA TO 23N120W 
20N140W. SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING THROUGH THE NW 
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA...OTHERWISE MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE 
AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS N OF THE 
ITCZ W OF 115W.

ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE IS E OF 110W WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. UPPER 
LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND AN 
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS 
ENHANCING STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ E OF 105W.

SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 8N-17N ALONG 103W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION N OF 13N TO THE COAST OF 
MEXICO BETWEEN 100W-104W. SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM 30N140N 
TO 22N115W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BLANKET THE 
AREA N OF 15N W OF 115W.

$$
DGS