000 AXPZ20 KNHC 031519 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC FRI JUL 03 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVE... TROPICAL WAVE HAS ENTERED THE EAST PACIFIC ALONG 79W N OF 04N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE LIES IN AN UPPER DIFFLUENT ZONE WHICH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 02N E OF 82W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 112W FROM 05N TO 12N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THERE IS SLIGHT LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGES ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS. CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE INTERSECTION OF THE ITCZ. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 08N81W 10N101W 08N125W 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 08N E OF 82W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 90W AND 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N AND 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 125W. ...DISCUSSION... N OF 20N... SFC WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS THE SUBTROPICS DUE TO A STALLED FRONT NW OF THE AREA...INTERRUPTING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING. ONLY EXCEPTION IS NEAR THE N COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WHERE SCATTEROMETER DATA AND A SHIP OBS INDICATE NW 15-20 KT WINDS. DECIDED NOT TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST AS WINDS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO OCCASIONALLY PULSE TO NEAR 20 KT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ENHANCED BY TERRAIN VARIATIONS OVER THE PENINSULA. 20 KT WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE SUSTAINED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH STRENGTHENS. N SWELL...ORIGINATING FROM STRONG N FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC NW...IS ELEVATING SEAS TO 7 FT NEAR 30N. SEAS WILL GENERALLY SUBSIDE A COUPLE OF FT OVER THE DAY OR TWO AS THE SWELLS DIMINISH. ALOFT...RIDGING EXTENDS FROM A HIGH NEAR THE W TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO NEAR 20N140W. SW FLOW TO THE W OF THE RIDGE AXIS IS ADVECTING SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE...BUT IS ONLY IN THE FORM OF HIGH CLOUDINESS. CONVECTION OVER MEXICO IS BEING DRIVEN OFF THE COAST BY ELY FLOW CURRENTLY FROM 20N-23N E OF 107W. MAINLY FAIR WEATHER EXISTS ELSEWHERE SUPPORTED BY WIDESPREAD DRY AIR ALOFT. S OF 20N... ONLY AREA IN THE TROPICS BEING CLOSELY MONITORED IS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF 11N101W. GFS APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON ITS INITIALIZATION SUGGESTIVE OF A NW TO SE-ORIENTED TROUGH FROM 17N103W TO 07N100W. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED 20 KT E TO SE WINDS WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE AXIS N OF 14N. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER BULLISH ON DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS BECOME LESS AGGRESSIVE TODAY. THIS SEEMS VERY REASONABLE AS THE BROAD LOW HAS YET TO CONSOLIDATE...BUT STILL AM SHOWING A LOW DEVELOP IN TEXT/GRAPHICS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. SW SWELL OF 15-17 SECONDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT FROM S TO N. THE ITCZ IS FAIRLY ACTIVE E OF 125W ENHANCED BY A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT AND THE TROPICAL WAVES DISCUSSED ABOVE. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES THAT NE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 20 KT. THE NEAR GALE FORCE SURGE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO PENETRATE THROUGH THE GAP INCREASING WINDS TO 30 KT BY TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH. $$ CANGIALOSI