000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030919
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI JUL 03 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...
TROPICAL WAVE FROM 5N-17N ALONG 107W MOVING W 10-15 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM W OF THE WAVE 
BETWEEN 5N-10N

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 6N78W 10N95W 10N115W 6N130W 5N140W. NUMEROUS 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS E OF 80W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION  WITHIN 240 NM S 
OF AXIS FROM 100W-106W AND WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS FROM FROM
107-127W.

...DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 
23N124W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION SW TO 17N140W. SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING 
THROUGH THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
OTHERWISE MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT 
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS N OF THE ITCZ W 
OF 110W. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N121W TO OFF 
THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 26N115W.

A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR 
THE SW TEXAS BORDER AT 30N105W...WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING S 
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF MEXICO. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE IS E OF 
105W WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND TSTMS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING STRONG CONVECTION OVER 
NICARAGUA AND OFF THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR.

SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 6N-14N ALONG 97W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 
93W-98W. SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM 30N140N TO 22N120W. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BLANKET THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 
115W.

$$
DGS