000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020332
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU JUL 02 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 100W FROM 5N-16N IS MOVING W NEAR 10 
KT. THIS WAVE IS PART OF A BROAD AREA OF DISORGANIZED 
CLOUDINESS...WHICH IS ALSO TIED THAT IF THE ITCZ. DEEP 
CONVECTION EARLIER NOTED WITH THE WAVE HAS SINCE DISSIPATED 
UNDER RATHER STRONG ELY SHEAR INDUCED BY STRONG UPPER LEVEL NE-E 
WINDS ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE 
ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 21N99W. EXPECT CONVECTION TO 
REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS E OF THE WAVE 
AS IT REMAINS UNDER UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AS THE NE-E WINDS 
ALOFT DISPERSE ACROSS THE FAR ERN PACIFIC OVER AND IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE WAVE.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N78W 9N90W 10N100W 9N120W 6N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF 
THE AXIS BETWEEN 81W-88W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 98W-103W.

...DISCUSSION...

A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES NW TO SE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH 32N127W...AND EXTENDS SEWD TO NEAR 28N118W. A SMALL
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 23N114W EARLIER. THIS 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION HAD EARLIER EVOLVED FROM THE TROUGH...AND
IS NEARLY STATIONARY. TO THE SW OF THE TROUGH...AN ELONGATED 
MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS SITUATED NEAR 18N128W. A LARGER 
DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS WELL W OF THE REGION. A PERSISTENT UPPER 
LEVEL SW FLOW PATTERN IS OBSERVED BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. THIS 
IS ADVECTING DEEP TROPICAL UPPER LEVEL MOSITURE FROM THE CENTRAL 
PACIFIC NEWD INTO THE AREA FROM 14N TO 22N E TO OVER THE CREST
OF THE ANTICYCLONE. ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS 
ENCROACHING INTO THE FAR NW CORNER IN ADVANCE OF THE LARGE 
TROUGH W OF THE TROUGH. OTHERWISE SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
SHOWS THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA 
W OF 110W IS UNDER MODERATE SUBSIDENCE LEADING TO RATHER STABLE 
CONDITIONS. AS INDICATED BY MODERATE SUBSIDENCE. VISIBLE 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHES OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN 
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING S AROUND THE ERN PERIPHERY OF 
SURFACE HIGH PRES PRESENT N OF 14N W OF 120W. WEAK HIGH PRES
COVERS THE AREA N OF 19N W OF 125W. A LAYER OF BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS IS OVER THE FAR NE PART OF THE 
AREA N OF 22N AND E OF 119W TO NEAR THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
QUIKSCAT DATA FROM YESTERDAY REVEALED A SMALL AREA OF N-NE 20 KT 
WINDS FROM ABOUT 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 120W AND 127W. EXPECT THESE 
WINDS TO DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HRS.

OVER THE ERN PORTION OF THE AREA E OF ABOUT 110W...ABUNDANT 
UPPER LEVEL MOSITURE IS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. MUCH OF 
THIS MOISTURE IS ATTRIBUTED TO CONDITIONS ALREADY DESCRIBED
ABOVE UNDER TROPICAL WAVE...BUT IS ALSO BEING ENHANCED IN THE 
ITCZ REGION AS THE REGION AND SURROUNDING AREAS ARE UNDER 
A BROAD LOW PRES FIELD. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER 
THE WRN CARIBBEAN IS CONTRIBUTING FURTHER TO THIS MOISTURE BY 
ADVECTING MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN SEA 
...AND OVER NICARAGUA SWD INTO THE FAR ERN PACIFIC.

$$
AGUIRRE