000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012204
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED JUL 01 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 99W FROM 5N-16N MOVING W 12 KT. THIS 
WAVE IS PART OF A BROAD AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS...WHICH 
ALONG WITH THAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ CONTAINS SMALL CLUSTERS 
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION N OF THE ITCZ 
FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 93W-98W. THE CONVECTION IS BEING SUSTAINED
PRIMARILY BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OCCURRING ON THE SRN 
PERIPHERY OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYLONE ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL 
MEXICO NEAR 20N100W...HOWEVER STRONG UPPER LEVEL NE WINDS ARE 
PROVIDING FOR A RATHER HOSTILE UPPER ENVIRONMENT LEADING TO 
SHEARING OF THE TOPS OF THE CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N77W 9N90W 10N104W 10N104W 9N115W
7N125W 6N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM 
S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 80W-88W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 95W-101W.

...DISCUSSION...

A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES NW TO SE INTO THE REGION
AT 32N127W...AND EXTENDS SEWD TO NEAR 28N118W AND THEN SE TO A
A SMALL UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 25N115W. THIS
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS SEPARATING AWAY FROM THE TROUGH AS IT
MOVES NE. TO THE SW OF THE TROUGH...AN ELONGATED MID/UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE IS SITUATED NEAR 18N129W. A LARGER DEEP LAYER TROUGH
IS WELL W OF THE REGION. A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW PATTERN
IS OBSERVED BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. THIS IS ADVECTING DEEP 
TROPICAL UPPER LEVEL MOSITURE FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC NEWD INTO 
THE AREA FROM 14N TO 21N E TO ABOUT 127W. ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE IS ENCROACHING INTO THE FAR NW CORNER IN ADVANCE OF THE 
LARGE TROUGH. OTHERWISE SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT 
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA W OF 110W 
IS UNDER MODERATE SUBSIDENCE LEADING TO RATHER STABLE 
CONDITIONS. AS INDICATED BY MODERATE SUBSIDENCE. VISIBLE 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHES OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN 
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING S AROUND THE ERN PERIPHERY OF 
SURFACE HIGH PRES PRESENT N OF 14N W OF 120W WITH A PARENT WEAK 
HIGH CENTER OF 1017 MB LOCATED NEAR 26N139W. A LAYER OF BROKEN 
TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS IS OVER THE FAR NE PART OF THE 
AREA N OF 22N AND E OF 119W TO NEAR THE COAST OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM NEAR 1450 UTC THIS MORNING 
REVEALED A SMALL AREA OF N-NE 20 KT WINDS FROM ABOUT 10N TO 18N 
BETWEEN 120W AND 127W. EXPECT THESE WINDS
TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HRS.

OVER THE ERN PORTION OF THE AREA E OF ABOUT 110W...ABUNDANT 
UPPER LEVEL MOSITURE IS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. MUCH OF 
THIS MOISTURE IS ATTRIBUTED TO CONDITIONS ALREADY DESCRIBED
ABOVE UNDER TROPICAL WAVE...BUT IS ALSO BEING ENHANCED IN
THE BROAD ITCZ REGION AS THE REGION LIES IN A BROAD LOW PRES
FIELD. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN
IS CONTRIBUTING FURTHER TO THIS MOISTURE BY ADVECTING MOISTURE
FROM CONVECTION OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN SEA AND NICARAGUA SWD
INTO THE FAR ERN PACIFIC.

$$
AGUIRRE