000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011516
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED JUL 01 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 97W/98W N OF 04N MOVING WEST AT 10 TO 
15 KT. THE UPPER FLOW IS SOMEWHAT DIFFLUENT HOWEVER NORTHEAST 
UPPER LEVEL WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT OVER THE SYSTEM IS LIMITING THE 
PERSISTENCE OF DEEP CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 300 NM EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS. 

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...07N77W TO 
10N100W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ EAST OF 86W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINT 11N97W.

...DISCUSSION...

IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS A BROAD WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW 
PATTERN COVERS MOST OF THE AREA NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 110W. 
THE AREA IS MOSTLY DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 
LEVELS. THE EXCEPTION IS A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF 
THIS AREA THAT IS SOUTH OF 20N AND NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND WEST OF 
130W. THIS AREA IS ALSO NOT DRY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS 
WITH SOME UPPER MOISTURE THAT EMANATES FROM FROM ITCZ CONVECTION 
THAT IS WEST OF THE AREA. ONLY HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED 
WITH THIS MOISTURE. IN THE LOWER LEVELS OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS 
COVER THIS AREA NORTH OF 15N EAST OF 120W WITH BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS NORTH OF 25N WEST OF 120W. ELSEWHERE 
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ARE FOUND IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

TO THE EAST OF 110W BROAD WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS PRESENT TO 
90W. THE AREA IS MOIST IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH MULTI 
LEVEL BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS. THE AREA NORTH OF ABOUT 12N 
FROM 105W TO 110W IS MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 
LEVELS.  CONVECTION IS ENHANCED IN THE BROAD ITCZ REGION EAST OF 
110W. THE ENHANCED CONVECTION EXTENDS NORTH OF 06N FROM 91W TO 
98W AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE. 
THE UPPER FLOW IN THIS REGION IS DIFFLUENT ALOFT WHICH 
CONTRIBUTES TO THE ENHANCED CONVECTION. TO THE EAST OF 90W 
CYCLONIC FLOW IS PRESENT AND IS THE WESTERN PART OF A LARGE 
UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR JAMAICA. 
ENHANCED CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE ITCZ REGION EAST OF 86W.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 110W. REMAINDER
OF THE SURFACE AREA IS ANALYZED AS A WEAK TROUGH.

$$
LL