000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302158
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JUN 30 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 92W/93W TO THE SOUTH OF 21N MOVING
WEST 10 KT TO 15 KT. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS
A MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE
NEAR 10N WITH SOME ORGANIZATION TO THE CONVECTION. SCATTERED 
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
10N TO 12N BETWEEN 88W AND 93W. THE GFS FORECAST COMPUTER
MODEL AT THIS TIME DOES NOT DEVELOP ANY SYSTEM IN THE AREA. 

...ITCZ...

07N77W TO 12N91W TO 10N96W TO 12N108W TO 09N120W TO 12N140W. 
SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 06N TO 07N 
BETWEEN 92W AND 94W...FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 91W AND 93W...AND 
FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 96W AND 102W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 81W
AND 88W...AND FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 127W AND 130W.

SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER 
SIDE OF 13N139W 15N138W 17137W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING
UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...TO THE NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND TO THE 
EAST OF A SURFACE RIDGE THAT IS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA.

...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS 
NEAR 22N112W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 16N TO 27N
BETWEEN 108W AND 127W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N125W
TO 29N128W TO 24N140W.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE OCCURRING IN SOUTHWESTERN HONDURAS ALONG THE BORDER
WITH EL SALVADOR...AND INTO SOUTHERN GUATEMALA ALSO.
THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING AT THE PERIPHERY OF
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
THAT IS IN THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.

$$
MT