000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301517
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE JUN 30 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91W N OF 07N MOVING W 10-15 KT. INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A MID LEVEL LOW LIES ALONG THE AXIS 
AROUND 10N WITH SOME ORGANIZATION TO THE CONVECTION. SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN A LARGE AREA 
FROM 06N TO 12N FROM 89W TO 96W. THE GFS FORECAST COMPUTER MODEL 
AT THIS TIME DOES NOT DEVELOP ANY SYSTEM IN THE AREA. 

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...04N77W TO 
10N110W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE POINT 04N78.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE AREA FROM 06N TO 12N 
FROM 89W TO 96W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ FROM 112W TO 122W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE AREA FROM 05N TO 09N W 
OF 138W.

...DISCUSSION...

IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS A BROAD WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW 
PATTERN IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 115W. THE AREA IS DRY AND 
CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. IN THE LOWER LEVELS 
OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS COVER THIS AREA NORTH OF 25N WITH AREAS 
OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS SOUTH OF 25N NORTH OF THE 
ITCZ. 

TO THE EAST OF 115W BROAD WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS PRESENT. THE 
AREA IS MOIST IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS BUT CLOUDS ARE NOT 
OBSERVED THROUGHOUT THE AREA. THE AREA NORTH OF ABOUT 15N FROM 
100W TO 115W IS MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS.  
CONVECTION IS ENHANCED IN THE BROAD ITCZ REGION EAST OF 100W. 
THE ENHANCED CONVECTION EXTENDS NORTH OF 06N FROM 88W TO 97W. 
THE UPPER FLOW IN THIS REGION IS DIFFLUENT ALOFT WHICH 
CONTRIBUTES TO THE ENHANCED CONVECTION. THE TROPICAL WAVE 
MENTIONED ABOVE IS WITHIN THIS REGION.

THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS ANALYZED AS A 
BROAD FLAT HEIGHT PATTERN.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 112W. REMAINDER
OF THE SURFACE AREA IS ANALYZED AS A WEAK TROUGH.

$$
LL