000 AXPZ20 KNHC 300917 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC TUE JUN 30 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVE... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 89W N OF 07N MOVING W 10-15 KT. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A MID LEVEL LOW LIES ALONG THE AXIS AROUND 09N...NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE ITCZ. A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THIS LOW CENTER. THE QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 0048 UTC AND THE ASCAT PASS FROM 0312 UTC...BOTH OF WHICH ONLY CLIPPED THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS FEATURE...DID NOT SUGGEST THE LOW IS REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE W AND PASS S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WED. ...ITCZ... ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 07N77W TO 08N88W TO 10N100W TO 10N126W TO 12N133W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 150 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 108W AND 120W. ...DISCUSSION... E OF 120W... TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN MEXICO AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CENTERED FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 10N112W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CURRENTLY LIES OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 89W. THIS IS A REGION OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SW BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE UPPER LOW SE OF HAITI NEAR 17N75W. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH S OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL DRIFT SW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS IT DOES SO...LOOK FOR THE ITCZ TO BE DRAWN NORTHWARD WITH THE SURFACE REELECTION OF THE TROUGH BECOMING EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND THE SE EDGE OF THE RIDGE CENTERED ALONG 15N W OF 115W IS ALREADY ENHANCING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE ITCZ WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FOUND WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 108W AND 120W. FARTHER N...THE ASCAT PASS FROM 0222 UTC SHOWS NW TO N WINDS OFF THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF 27N TO 20 KT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 20 KT HERE THE NEXT FEW DAYS BETWEEN THE HEAT LOW OVER THE SW U.S. AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER N CENTRAL WATERS...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE EVENING. W OF 120W... A SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ LIES FROM 17N135W TO 08N138W. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE N OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE NEXT SPOKE IN THE BROAD TROUGH OVER NW WATERS SWINGS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH SHOULD STEER SOME OF THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURFACE TROUGH NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CURRENTLY LIES ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 07N TO 10N W OF 138W. INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM FOR WATERS W OF 140W CAN BE FOUND IN THE HSFNP PRODUCT ISSUED BY NWS FORECAST OFFICE HONOLULU. TO THE N...GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. THE LAST FEW DAYS HAVE INDUCED N TO NE SWELL THAT HAS MOVED INTO NW WATERS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT LATER TODAY. TO THE S...THE QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 0230 UTC SHOWS E TO SE WINDS TO 20 KT S OF 05N W OF 125W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AT THE SAME TIME...CROSS- EQUATORIAL SW SWELL IS EXPECTED MOVE RAISE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS ABOVE 8 FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA S OF 02S W OF 81W BY TOMORROW EVENING. $$ SCHAUER CLARK