000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291515
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JUN 29 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

THE SOUTHERN END OF A TROPICAL WAVE PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN 
CARIBBEAN LIES ALONG 83W/84W N OF 06N. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS 
MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. THERE IS NO CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE AT 
THIS TIME. A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WELL WEST OF THE WAVE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE POINT 
08N89W.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE,..05N77W TO 
09N105W TO 12N135W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINT 04N81W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE AREA FROM 08N TO 10N 
FROM 101W TO 108W.

...DISCUSSION...

IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS A BROAD WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW 
PATTERN IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 115W. THE AREA IS DRY AND 
CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. IN THE LOWER LEVELS 
OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS COVER THIS AREA NORTH OF 22N WITH AREAS 
OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS SOUTH OF 22N NORTH OF THE 
ITCZ. 

TO THE EAST OF 115W BROAD WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS PRESENT. THE 
AREA IS MOIST IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS BUT IS CLOUDS ARE 
NOT OBSERVED THROUGHOUT THE AREA. THE AREA NORTH OF ABOUT 12N 
FROM 95W TO 115W IS MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS 
ALSO THE AREA NORTH OF THE ITCZ EAST OF 83W IS ALSO MOSTLY CLEAR 
IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. CONVECTION IS ENHANCED IN THE 
BROAD ITCZ REGION EAST OF 110W. THE ENHANCED CONVECTION EXTENDS 
FROM 05N TO 12N EAST OF 110W. THE UPPER FLOW IN THIS REGION IS 
DIFFLUENT ALOFT WHICH CONTRIBUTES TO THE ENHANCED CONVECTION.

TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 17N135W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM WEST OF THE TROUGH 
FROM 10N TO 14N. ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 115W A WEAK 
RIDGE IS ANALYZED. REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS ANALYZED AS A WEAK 
TROUGH.

$$
LL