000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281504
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN JUN 28 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...
TROPICAL WAVE N OF 6N ALONG 96W MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE HAS 
BEEN RELOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE ARE FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 93W-98W.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 9N84W 10N90W 9N105W 13N125W 6N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS FROM 
84W-90W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 
180 NM S OF AXIS FROM 103W-112W AND WITHIN 220 NM S OF AXIS FROM 
127-137W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM 32N137W TO 25N130W 18N135W. SW 
OF THE TROUGH IS AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION JUST W 
OF THE AREA NEAR 19N142W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR
AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COVERS THE AREA
N OF THE ITCZ AND W OF 115W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW SE OF 
THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY 
ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 125W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE E OF THE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER W TEXAS ACROSS
NW MEXICO THE THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA TO 20N116W. SE OF THE 
RIDGE A WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER 
CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 22N101W.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH
GUATEMALA TO 12N96W. THE AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER MOIST  ACROSS 
THE AREA E OF 110W...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. A LARGE
CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND 
PANAMA N OF 3N E OF 83W.

A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE ITCZ WITH AXIS FROM 15N127W TO 6N131W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH ARE FROM
6N-11N BETWEEN 127W-130W. OTHERWISE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 
30N140W TO 17N115W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
BLANKET THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 115W.

$$
DGS