000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270333
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT JUN 27 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N85W TO 08N100W TO 12N120W TO 
08N130W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 123W AND 130W. 
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 70 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 118W AND 
120W. 

...DISCUSSION...
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE MAINTAINING STABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS 
REMAINS PRESENT OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NW OF A 
LINE FROM CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA SW TO 17N122W TO 10N140W. A 
BROAD DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE ANCHORED ON A HIGH NEAR 19N126W COVERS 
MOST OF THIS REGION. ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER NE 
TEXAS HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING SW ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO. 
UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW 
SPINNING OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO IS HELPING TO INDUCE 
CONVECTION ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL MOUNTAINS AS WELL 
AS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS ALSO  
SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ BETWEEN 123W 
AND 130W.

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE...ANCHORED ON A 1030 MB HIGH LOCATED NW 
OF AREA...DOMINATES THE REGION N OF 15N AND W OF 115W. THE PRES 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ 
IS RESULTING IN NE TRADE WINDS OF 20 KT FROM 08N-20N W OF 132W. 
FARTHER NORTH...WINDS AND SEAS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE. AN 
EARLIER QSCAT PASS SHOWED NE WINDS OF 20 KT N OF 25N W OF 130W. 
SEAS IN THE 8 TO 10 FT RANGE ARE ALSO INVADING THE N WATERS... 
MAINLY W OF 122W. WITH THE HIGH CENTER REFORMING FURTHER N... 
THESE CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.

OVER THE TROPICAL ZONE...THE LOW PRES THAT HAS BEEN EMBEDDED IN 
THE ITCZ DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS WAS RELOCATED NEAR 12N122W ON 
THE 0000 UTC SURFACE MAP BASED ON VIS SATELLITE PICTURES.  
CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED SINCE YESTERDAY...AND NOW A FEW 
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF THE 
LOW CENTER. WINDS AND SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE HAVE 
ALSO DIMINISHED. LATEST RUN OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTS THAT 
THE LOW WILL WEAKEN IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. 

LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM THE SOUTH PACIFIC IS CROSSING THE EQUATOR 
RAISING SEAS TO 8 FT S OF 04N BETWEEN 94W AND 102W. EXPECT THE 
LARGEST SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SWELL EVENT
TO SHIFT W OVER THE WEEKEND.
 
$$
GR