000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262150
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI JUN 26 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N78W 8N88W 7N97W 12N110W
12N120W 13N130W 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS E OF 80W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
95W-102W.

...DISCUSSION...
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE MAINTAINING STABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS 
REMAINS PRESENT OVER THE MAJORITY THE DISCUSSION AREA NW OF A 
LINE FROM CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA SW TO 17N122W TO 10N140W. A 
BROAD DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE ANCHORED ON A HIGH NEAR 19N126W COVERS 
MOST OF THIS REGION. ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE 
U.S. SOUTHERN PLAINS HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING OVER TEXAS AND 
MEXICO. ABUNDANT DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE LIES IN THE SOUTHERLY 
FLOW BETWEEN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE AND A TROUGH 
EXTENDING OVER WESTERN MEXICO. ONCE AGAIN...THIS MOISTURE IS 
HELPING FUEL AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE 
OCCIDENTAL MOUNTAINS.

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE...ASSOCIATED WITH A 1031 MB HIGH 
LOCATED NEAR 35N141W...ENTERS THE AREA THROUGH 31N136W EXTENDING 
SE TO 18N114W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOW PRES 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS RESULTING IN NE TRADE WINDS OF 20 KT 
FROM 08N-20N W OF 132W. FARTHER NORTH...WINDS AND SEAS ARE 
BEGINNING TO INCREASE. AN EARLIER QSCAT PASS SHOWED NE WINDS OF 
20 TO 25 KT N OF 25N W OF 130W. SEAS IN THE 8 TO 10 FT RANGE ARE 
ALSO INVADING THE N WATERS...MAINLY W OF 122W. WITH THE HIGH 
CENTER REFORMING FURTHER N...THESE CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH IN 
ABOUT 48 HOURS.

OVER THE TROPICAL ZONE...A PERSISTENT 1010 MB LOW PRES CENTER 
REMAINS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ NEAR 13N119W MOVING SLOWLY NE. 
CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED SINCE YESTERDAY...HOWEVER SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM SE 
QUADRANT OF THE LOW. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING REVEALED 
MOSTLY 20 KT WIND VECTORS WITHIN 120 NM SE AND 90 NM NW 
SEMICIRCLES OF LOW. LATEST RUN OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTS 
THAT THE LOW WILL WEAKEN IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. 

LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM THE SOUTH PACIFIC IS CROSSING THE EQUATOR 
RAISING SEAS TO 8 FT S OF 04N BETWEEN 94W AND 102W. EXPECT THE 
LARGEST SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SWELL EVENT
TO SHIFT W OVER THE WEEKEND.
 
$$
GR