000 AXPZ20 KNHC 261603 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC FRI JUN 26 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N78W 8N88W 7N97W 12N110W 12N120W 13N130W 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS E OF 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 95W-102W. ...DISCUSSION... A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SSW TO 32N121W TO 27N122W TO 21N123W...THEN TURN MORE SE TO A COL REGION NEAR 22.5N118.5W. TO THE W OF THE TROUGH...BROAD DEEP LAYER RIDGING COVERS THE AREA WITH AN ASSOCIATED ELONGATED ANTICYCLONE MOVING E NEAR 18N131W. THE NORTHERN PART OF THIS RIDGING EXTENDS N TO WELL BEYOND THE REGION WITH AN EMBEDDED SMALL MID LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX MOVING W NEAR 32N133.5W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE MAINTAINING STABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAINS PRESENT OVER THEW MAJORITY THE DISCUSSION AREA NW OF A LINE FROM CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA SW TO 17N121W TO 10N135W. AT THE SURFACE...THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE ENTERS THE AREA THROUGH 32N136W TO 27N128W TO NEAR 22N122W WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY PARENT HIGH CENTER OF NW OF THE AREA NEAR 36N141W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS RESULTING IN NE TRADE WINDS OF 20 KT FROM 12N-22N W OF 133W. THESE TRADES ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO N OF 26N W OF 131W IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AS THE HIGH CENTER REFORMS FURTHER TO THE N OF THE AREA. A VERY STRONG PRES GRADIENT N OF THE AREA BETWEEN THE HIGH CENTER AND THE U.S. W COAST IS RESULTING IN N-NE WINDS OF 20 KT ACROSS NRN BOUNDARY OF THE AREA N OF 28N BETWEEN 122W-133W WITH SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN N SWELL. WITH THE HIGH CENTER REFORMING FURTHER N...THESE CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. OVER THE TROPICAL ZONE...A PERSISTENT 1010 MB LOW PRES CENTER REMAINS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ NEAR 11N120W MOVING LITTLE. THE TOPS OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW HAS WARMED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...HOWEVER SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE LOW. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM NEAR 1330 THIS MORNING REVEALED MOSTLY 20 KT WIND VECTORS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE LOW IN THE SW QUADRANT...AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LOW IN THE NW QUADRANT. THE QUIKSCAT DATA ALSO DEPICTED THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM THE LOW NE TO 13N115W...AND SW OF THE LOW TO NEAR 8N127W. LATEST RUN OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW WILL TRACK SOME TO THE NE IN 24 HOURS...THEN PERHAPS WEAKEN TO A TROUGH IN 36-48 HOURS. QUIKSCAT AND ASCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING HINTED AT AN ELONGATED AREA OF WEAK LOW PRES OVER THE FAR ERN PORTION OF THE AREA FROM 10N-13N E OF 95W. SE-S WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE INDICATED S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 94W-102W WHERE SEAS TO 8 FT IN S SWELL ARE NOTED. SMALL CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE NOTED OVER MUCH OF THE FAR ERN PART OF THE AREA DUE TO THE ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRES. AN ABUNDANCE OF UPPER LEVEL MOSITURE ORIGINATING FROM ITCZ CONVECTION AS WELL AS FROM CONVECTION EARLIER OVER THE INTERIOR OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA IS SLOWLY SPREADING WSW UNDER STRONG UPPER LEVEL NE WINDS GENERATED BY STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER MEXICO. THE MOISTURE ADVECTS WWD TO NEAR 112W. $$ AGUIRRE