000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240919
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JUN 24 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WAS CENTERED NEAR 19.5N 106.7W OR ABOUT 90 
MILES SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AT 0900 UTC MOVING NW 8 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP/WTPZ32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST 
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2 WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE 
DETAILS. THE CENTER OF THE STORM IS CURRENTLY N OF THE DEEP 
CONVECTION. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE STORM IS 
WEAKENING AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT 
LOW BY 72 HOURS.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 7N78W 9N90W 15N100W 12N115W 06N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM S OF AXIS FROM
81W-88W AND WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS FROM 112W-127W.

...DISCUSSION...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LOCATED NEAR 32N125W TO NEAR 24N132W.
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE 
AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 
105W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER 
NW MEXICO NEAR 29N110W. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ANTICYCLONE SW 
TO 17N125W....ANDRES IS MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE.  
UPPER LEVEL N-NE FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND AN ELONGATED UPPER 
TROUGH CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO IS PROVIDING MODERATE 
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER ANDRES. 

A 1010 SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 11N122W 
MOVING NE 10 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE 
CENTER. THE LOW IS GENERATING 20 KT WINDS WITHIN 180 NM SE OF 
THE CENTER AND 90 NM NW OF THE CENTER. OTHERWISE A BROAD SURFACE 
RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 115W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BLANKET THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 115W. THE 
RIDGED AXIS EXTENDS FROM 30N140W TO 20N120W.
 
$$
DGS