000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230911
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE JUN 23 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WAS CENTERED NEAR 17.4N 103.4W OR ABOUT 
160 MILES SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AT 0900 UTC MOVING NW AT 7 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP/WTPZ32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST 
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2 WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE 
DETAILS. TROPICAL STORM ANDRES HAS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER 
ORGANIZED IN THE OVERALL CLOUD STRUCTURE AND ASSOCIATED DEEP 
CONVECTION. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 14N TO THE COAST 
OF MEXICO BETWEEN 101W-107W.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 7N77W 13N95W 12N105W 11N120W 8N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITHIN 200 NM S OF AXIS FROM 84W TO 95W AND WITHIN 180 
NM S OF AXIS FROM 121W TO 125W.

...DISCUSSION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N127W 25N133W TO 24N140W. 
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS S OF THE TROUGH. THE ASSOCIATED 
MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 19N120W. A RIDGE 
EXTENDS W FROM THE ANTICYCLONE SW TO 15N130W. STABLE CONDITIONS 
UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ARE OBSERVED OVER MUCH OF 
THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 112W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS  
BLANKET THE AREA N OF 17N W OF 115W. IN THE DEEP TROPICS AN 
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 6N135W. 
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW WITH THE ANTICYLONE IS ENHANCING 
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE ITCZ IN THE AREA.

DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW EAST OF THE TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP 
LAYER MOISTURE WITH A LARGE AREA OF MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS AND 
EMBEDDED AREAS OF CONVECTION THAT COVERS THE AREA E OF 105W. 
THIS AREA INCLUDES TROPICAL STORM ANDRES MENTIONED IN THE 
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. 

A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 11N125W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE LOW CENTER. OTHERWISE
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 120W WITH AXIS FROM
32N136W TO 22N120W.

$$
DGS