000 AXPZ20 KNHC 220915 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC MON JUN 22 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM ANDRES IS CENTERED NEAR 15.0N 102.1W OR ABOUT 200 MILES S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO AT 0900 UTC MOVING WNW 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP/WTPZ32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE CLOUD STRUCTURE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED UNDER FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N=17N BETWEEN 100W-105W. ...ITCZ... AXIS IS ALONG 7N78W 7N85W 14N95W 10N105W 12N125W 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS FROM 83W TO 86W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS FROM 123W TO 127W. ...DISCUSSION... WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N120W SE TO 20N116W. STRONGER TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA AT 32N128W SW TO 25N140W. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS S OF THE TROUGH W OF 117W...WITH THE CENTER OF THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 17N126W. RIDGE EXTENDS W FROM THE ANTICYCLONE CENTER TO 13N140W. RATHER STABLE CONDITIONS UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ARE OBSERVED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 110W. OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BLANKET THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 110W. FLOW AROUND THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ADVECTING ITCZ MOISTURE NW BUT THE CLOUDS EVAPORATE AT 15N IN THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 25N101W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND TROPICAL STORM ANDRES. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS COVERS THE AREA E OF 110W. A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 10N128W MOVING NE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM NW QUADRANT OF THE LOW...OTHERWISE THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS S OF THE ITCZ AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. $$ DGS