000 AXPZ20 KNHC 220325 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC MON JUN 22 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM ANDRES AT 03/0300 UTC...CENTERED NEAR 14.8N 101.9W OR ABOUT 205 MILES S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO AT 031/0300 UTC MOVING W 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP/WTPZ32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SATELLITE VISIBLE IMAGERY FROM THROUGHOUT THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ARE SHOWING THAT THE OVERALL CLOUD STRUCTURE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED UNDER FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS. WHAT EARLIER APPEARED TO BE A TIGHT BANDING FEATURE TRYING TO WRAP UNDER THE CENTER FROM THE W...HAS GIVEN WAY TO AN INCREASING LARGE CLUSTER OF NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE S QUADRANT. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM IN THE S SEMICIRCLE...AND A 60 NM WIDE BAND THAT EXTENDS FROM 13N104W TO 16N104W TO 18N102W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG EXISTS FROM 12.5N-13N BETWEEN 103W-105W AND WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 14N98W TO 16N99W. ANDRES IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS PER LATEST NHC FORECAST FORECAST. CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ARE NOTED WELL E OF THE CENTER TO ALONG AND OFFSHORE THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST FROM EL SALVADOR TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 9N-16N BETWEEN 91W-98W INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND SW MEXICO...PRIMARILY ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS...WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ADDITION SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANAMA. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG 7N77W 9N89W 14N98W...THEN RESUMES AT 10N104W 9N116W 12N126W 8N135W 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 82W-84W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 90W-98W AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 106W-111W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 124W-127W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 132W-135W. ...DISCUSSION... A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N123W SE TO 26N119W THEN SSW TO A COL REGION NEAR 16N116W. A STRONGER DEEP LAYER TROUGH ENTERS THE REGION THROUGH 32N133W AND EXTENDS TO SW OF THE AREA AT 27N140W. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS PRESENT S OF THIS TROUGH...AND W OF THE WEAK TROUGH WITH THE ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 12N125W. A RIDGE EXTENDS W FROM THE ANTICYCLONE TO W OF THE AREA AT 13N140W. RATHER STABLE CONDITIONS UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ARE OBSERVED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 15N. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BLANKET OF MOSTLY OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS MOVING SSW FROM 20N TO 29N W OF 115W. THE ANTICYCLONE NEAR 12N125W IS DRAWING ITCZ MOISTURE BETWEEN 125W-135W ALONG WITH THAT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW NEAR 11N128W NWD TO NEAR 15N BEFORE IT EVAPORATES IN THE DRIER AIR. THE LOW IS MOVING SLOWLY NE...AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10N127W TO 12N128W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM SW OF THE LOW. THE LOW HAS HAS A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE ENTERS THE AREA THROUGH 32N133W AND CONTINUES TO 27N125W TO 23N117W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 18N W OF 120W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND LOW PRES ALONG AND NEAR THE ITCZ IS LEADING TO NE WINDS OF 20 KT FROM 17N-27N W OF 130W. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE WITH LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LIKEWISE...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOW PRES OVER THE SW U.S. IS CREATING NW-N WINDS OF 20 KT N OF 28N E OF 125W AS NOTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM THIS MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN THE AREA BETWEEN 120W-130W N OF 28N IN 48 HOURS...OR COULD POSSIBLY EXTEND FURTHER E CLOSE TO THE COAST AS THE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHWARD. OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS SW FROM AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE WELL E OF THE REGION OVER WESTERN MISSISSIPPI SW TO 23N106W TO THE COL REGION IN BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS DESCRIBED ABOVE. THE UPPER FLOW IS VERY DIFFLUENT S OF 19N PARTLY DUE TO AN UPPER CYCLONE MOVING W OVER EASTERN MEXICO NEAR 24N98W. THIS IS GREATLY SUPPORTING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ANDRES. STRONG NE UPPER LEVEL WINDS EVIDENT S OF 10N ARE TRANSPORTING UPPER LEVEL ITCZ MOSITURE ALONG WITH THAT FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E SWD. OTHER UPPER LEVEL MOSITURE FROM THE SCATTERED TO MODERATE STRONG ITCZ CONVECTION E OF 84W...ENHANCED BY THE TAIL END OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN SEA ...IS BEING CHANNELED SWD BY THESE WINDS. AS CONVECTION WITH TROPICAL STORM ANDRES CONTINUES TO INCREASE...THE RESULTANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY SPREAD WESTWARD OVER THE AREA FROM 10N-21N W OF TO ABOUT 117W IN 48 HOURS. $$ AGUIRRE