000 AXPZ20 KNHC 212346 AAA TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2345 UTC SUN JUN 21 2009 ...UPDATED CONVECTION RELATED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E... TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E WAS CENTERED NEAR 14.7N 101.7W OR ABOUT 205 MILES S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO AT 21/2100 UTC MOVING W 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP/WTPZ32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SATELLITE VISIBLE IMAGERY FROM THROUGHOUT THE DAY HAVE SHOWN THAT THE OVERALL CLOUD STRUCTURE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED UNDER FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 45 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SW QUADRANT...AND WITHIN 60 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT. A RATHER TIGHT BANDING FEATURE WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER FROM THE W CONSISTS OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION...ABOUT 90 NM WIDE ...FROM 14.5N105W TO 16.5N103W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF 13N106W. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM OVERNIGHT...AND CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS PER LATEST NHC FORECAST GUIDANCE AS IT MOVES IN A GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION. CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ARE NOTED WELL E OF THE CENTER TO ALONG AND OFFSHORE THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST FROM EL SALVADOR TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 9N-16N BETWEEN 91W-98W INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND SW MEXICO...PRIMARILY ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS...WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ADDITION SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANAMA. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG 6N77W 8N95W 14N99W...THEN RESUMES AT 12N104W 8N114W 9N124W 7N132W 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 105W-110W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 110W-124W...AND 131W-137W. ...DISCUSSION... A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N123W SE TO 26N119W THEN SSW TO A COL REGION NEAR 16N116W. A STRONGER DEEP LAYER TROUGH ENTERS THE REGION THROUGH 32N133W AND EXTENDS TO SW OF THE AREA AT 27N140W. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS PRESENT S OF THIS TROUGH...AND W OF THE WEAK TROUGH WITH THE ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 12N125W. A RIDGE EXTENDS W FROM THE ANTICYCLONE TO W OF THE AREA AT 13N140W. RATHER STABLE CONDITIONS UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ARE OBSERVED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 15N. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BLANKET OF MOSTLY OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS MOVING SSW FROM 20N TO 29N W OF 115W. THE ANTICYCLONE NEAR 12N125W IS DRAWING ITCZ MOISTURE BETWEEN 125W-135W ALONG WITH THAT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW NEAR 11N128W NWD TO NEAR 15N BEFORE IT EVAPORATES IN THE DRIER AIR. THE LOW IS MOVING SLOWLY NE...AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10N127W TO 12N128W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM SW OF THE LOW. THE LOW HAS HAS A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE ENTERS THE AREA THROUGH 32N133W AND CONTINUES TO 27N125W TO 23N117W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 18N W OF 120W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND LOW PRES ALONG AND NEAR THE ITCZ IS LEADING TO NE WINDS OF 20 KT FROM 17N-27N W OF 130W. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE WITH LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LIKEWISE...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOW PRES OVER THE SW U.S. IS CREATING NW-N WINDS OF 20 KT N OF 28N E OF 125W AS NOTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM THIS MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN THE AREA BETWEEN 120W-130W N OF 28N IN 48 HOURS...OR COULD POSSIBLY EXTEND FURTHER E CLOSE TO THE COAST AS THE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHWARD. OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS SW FROM AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE WELL E OF THE REGION OVER WESTERN MISSISSIPPI SW TO 23N106W TO THE COL REGION IN BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS DESCRIBED ABOVE. THE UPPER FLOW IS VERY DIFFLUENT S OF 19N PARTLY DUE TO AN UPPER CYCLONE MOVING W OVER EASTERN MEXICO NEAR 24N98W. THIS IS GREATLY SUPPORTING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E. STRONG NE UPPER LEVEL WINDS EVIDENT S OF 10N ARE TRANSPORTING UPPER LEVEL ITCZ MOSITURE ALONG WITH THAT FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E SWD. OTHER UPPER LEVEL MOSITURE FROM THE SCATTERED TO MODERATE STRONG ITCZ CONVECTION E OF 84W...ENHANCED BY THE TAIL END OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN SEA ...IS BEING CHANNELED SWD BY THESE WINDS. AS CONVECTION WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E CONTINUES TO INCREASE...THE RESULTANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY SPREAD WESTWARD OVER THE AREA FROM 10N-21N W OF TO ABOUT 117W IN 48 HOURS. $$ AGUIRRE