000 AXPZ20 KNHC 212205 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SUN JUN 21 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E WAS CENTERED NEAR 14.7N 101.7W OR ABOUT 205 MILES S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO AT 21/2100 UTC MOVING W 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP/WTPZ32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SATELLITE VISIBLE IMAGERY FROM THROUGHOUT THE DAY HAVE SHOWN THAT THE OVERALL CLOUD STRUCTURE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WITH WHAT EARLIER A TROPICAL LOW HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED UNDER FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS...SO THE SYSTEM WAS UPGRADED TO A DEPRESSION THIS AFTERNOON. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM E AND 75 NM W OF CENTER. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM NE AND 90 NM SW QUADRANTS OF CENTER. A RATHER TIGHT BANDING FEATURE WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER FROM THE SW CONSISTS OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION...ABOUT 90 NM WIDE...EXTENDING FROM 13N104W TO 15N104W. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM BY LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN INTO THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES IN A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK. AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE SEEN WELL E OF THE CENTER ARE ALONG AND OFFSHORE THE COAST FROM WESTERN EL SALVADOR TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 9N TO 16N BETWEEN 91W AND 98W INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND SW MEXICO...PRIMARILY ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS...WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG 6N77W 8N95W 14N99W...THEN RESUMES AT 12N104W 8N114W 9N124W 7N132W 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE POINT 05.5N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINT 06.5N88.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ FROM 100W TO 108W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ FROM 121W TO 125W AND FROM 129W TO 135W. OTHER AREA OF CONVECTION OUTSIDE THE ITCZ IS SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINT 18N105W. ...DISCUSSION... WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE IS NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 130W. RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BY MONDAY THIS AREA WILL BE PART OF A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA. THE AREA IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH MOSTLY OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS IN THE LOWER LEVELS EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS NORTH OF 29N WEST OF 135W. LARGE TROUGH IS OVER THE AREA ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 32N103W TO 20N109W TO THE ITCZ NEAR 118W. AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WITHIN 300 NM OF THE POINT 09N129W IS MOIST IN THE DEEP LAYER WITH MULTI LEVEL OVERCAST CLOUDS AND ENHANCED CONVECTION INCLUDING WITHIN THE ITCZ. A SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 10N129W 1009 MB AND IS MOVING NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE AREA FROM 09N TO 11.5N FROM 126W TO 132W ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. THIS LOW HAS A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE BROAD TROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS NORTH OF 20N AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS FROM 15N TO 20N IN THE LOWER LEVELS. DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW EAST OF THE BROAD TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AREA OF MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED AREAS OF CONVECTION THAT EXTENDS EAST TO CENTRAL AMERICA MOSTLY NORTH OF THE ITCZ. THIS AREA INCLUDES THE LOW MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. A MODERATE SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 115W. ELSEWHERE EXCEPT AS MENTIONED ABOVE A BROAD TROUGH IS ANALYZED AT THE SURFACE. $$ AGUIRRE