000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210410
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN JUN 21 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1004 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 15N99W DRIFTING WNW. 
BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING CAN BE SEEN IN A LARGE AREA SURROUNDING 
THE SYSTEM. WITH THIS LARGE BROAD SYSTEM ARE EXTENDING FROM 
GUATEMALA INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE 
RESIDES OVER THIS REGION...AND IS PROVIDING AN ENVIRONMENT 
FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 10N86W 13N105W 7N120W 8N129W 6N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 7N-15N BETWEEN 90W-110W AND 
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 124W-131W.

...DISCUSSION...
MIDDLE AND UPPER RIDGE IS N OF 20N WEST OF 135W. RIDGE IS 
FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND BY MONDAY 
THIS AREA WILL BE PART OF A BROAD TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE 
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. THE AREA IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN 
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
WITH OVERCAST TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 17N FROM 110W-125W...WITH AXIS 
FROM NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 32N1216W TO 17N117W. THE AREA 
IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. IN THE 
LOWER LEVELS MOSTLY OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS IS OBSERVED OVER THE 
PACIFIC. DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW E THE TROUGH IS PRODUCING A LARGE
AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH BROKEN/OVERCAST MULTI-LAYERED
CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION N OF 5N. IN THE DEEP TROPICS
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 9N126W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW WITH WITH ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH A SURFACE LOW NEAR 9N12NW.


A MODERATE SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 22N WEST OF 130W WITH A 
WEAKER RIDGE ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 14N WEST OF 112W. ELSEWHERE 
EXCEPT AS MENTIONED ABOVE A BROAD W TO E TROUGH IS ANALYZED AT 
THE SURFACE ALONG ABOUT 13-14N...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THIS TROUGH...PRODUCING SEAS 
IN THE 6 TO 8 FT RANGE...AND YIELDING CONVERGENCE THAT WILL 
MAINTAIN ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 85W AND 
110W FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
$$
DGS