000 AXPZ20 KNHC 192245 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC FRI JUN 19 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WAS CENTERED NEAR 22.3N 106.9W...1003 MB...AT 1500 UTC JUNE 19 MOVING N AT 12 KT. THE CENTER WAS ABOUT 60 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL WINDS HAVE SHEARED MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OFF TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE WEAKENED LOW LEVEL CENTER. THIS LOW LEVEL CENTER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEAST AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHEARED MID LEVEL REMNANTS OF THE T.D. ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRES DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THE PAST FEW DAYS WAS ANALYZED ALONG 101W...MOVING W 10-15 KT. A MONSOON CIRCULATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE TROPICAL EPAC DURING THE PAST WEEK MAKES PRECISE IDENTIFICATION OF THIS WAVE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...AND IS BERING TRACKED LARGELY DUE TO CONTINUITY. A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS MAINLY WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE WAVE. THE CONVECTION IS NOT ORGANIZED OR CONSOLIDATING AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...CYCLONIC TURNING NOTED YESTERDAY WITH THIS WAVE ACROSS AND S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC PERSISTS THERE TODAY...AND IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE WAS ALONG 08.5N76W TO 09N84W TO 12.5N93W TO TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 101W...THEN RESUMES FROM 15N108W TO 09N116W TO 08N121W TO 10N130W TO 06.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN COAST OF COLOMBIA AND TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 101W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WAS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS FROM 109W TO 134W...AND WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS W OF 132W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OCCURRING FROM 90 TO 180 NM FROM CENTER IN NE QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING ALONG AND SE OF TROUGH AXIS S OF T.D. ONE-E...FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 106W AND 110W. ...DISCUSSION... MIDDLE AND UPPER RIDGE IS NORTH OF 22N WEST OF 133W. RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE AREA IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH OVERCAST TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE IS OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN AREA. THE TROUGH IS NORTH OF 22N FROM 108W TO 120W. THE AREA IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OVER THE PACIFIC BUT THERE IS MOISTURE AND SOME CLOUDINESS OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF MEXICO IN THE STATE OF SONORA WITH SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING. IN THE LOWER LEVELS MOSTLY OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS IS OBSERVED. DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW EAST OF THE TROUGH COUPLED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ADVECTING A MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE ITCZ NORTHWARD OVER A BROAD AREA 250 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM NEAR 30N102W TO 20N102W AND FURTHER SOUTH THE PLUME BECOMES PART OF AN OVERALL MOIST AREA NORTH OF THE ITCZ EAST OF A LINE FROM NORTHERN SINALOA TO 17N110W TO THE ITCZ NEAR 120W. THIS AREA INCLUDES THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION MENTIONED ABOVE. REMAINDER OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS ANALYZED AS A WEAK HEIGHT PATTERN. THE AREA NORTH OF THE ITCZ EAST OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED MOISTURE PLUME IS DIFFLUENT ALOFT WITH MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED AREAS OF CONVECTION. A MODERATE SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 22N WEST OF 128W WITH A WEAKER RIDGE ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 12N WEST OF 117W. ELSEWHERE EXCEPT AS MENTIONED ABOVE A BROAD TROUGH IS ANALYZED ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE. $$ STRIPLING