000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191549
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI JUN 19 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E CENTERED NEAR 21.0N 107.1W 1003 MB AT 1500 
UTC JUNE 19 MOVING NNE AT 9 KT. THE CENTER IS ABOUT 140 NAUTICAL 
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE 
SHEARING THE SYSTEM HOWEVER SOME UPPER OUTFLOW IS STILL APPARENT. 
MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE NORTH QUADRANT. THE UPPER 
DIFFLUENCE IS BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM  
THE NW OF THE DEPRESSION. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
DEPRESSION IS CONFINED TO WITHIN ABOUT 45 NM OF THE CENTER EXCEPT 
EXTENDING OUT 200 NM IN THE NORTH QUADRANT. THE DEPRESSION IS 
FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATE TODAY THEN MOVE INLAND OVER 
MEXICO SAT. HEAVY RAINS ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF SW MEXICO AS THE 
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST AND MOVES INLAND.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF 08N ALONG 99W MOVING W 10-15 KT. A LARGE AREA 
OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF THE WAVE. THE CONVECTION IS NOT ORGANIZED OR CONSOLIDATING 
AT THIS TIME. 

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...06N77W TO 
11N110W TO 06N120W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS IN A LARGE AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ITCZ
E OF 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM 
OF THE AXIS FROM 113W TO 118W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINT 09N132W.

...DISCUSSION...

MIDDLE AND UPPER RIDGE IS NORTH OF 22N WEST OF 133W. RIDGE IS 
FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND BY SUNDAY BE 
PART OF A BROAD TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE . THE AREA IS DRY AND 
CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH OVERCAST TO BROKEN 
STRATOCUMULUS IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE IS OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE PACIFIC 
OCEAN AREA. THE TROUGH IS NORTH OF 22N FROM 108W TO 120W. THE AREA 
IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OVER THE 
PACIFIC BUT THERE IS MOISTURE AND SOME CLOUDINESS OVER THE NORTHWEST 
PART OF MEXICO IN THE STATE OF SONORA WITH SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION 
DEVELOPING. IN THE LOWER LEVELS MOSTLY OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS IS 
OBSERVED. DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW EAST OF THE TROUGH COUPLED WITH 
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ADVECTING A MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE ITCZ NORTHWARD 
OVER A BROAD AREA 250 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM NEAR 30N102W TO 
20N102W AND FURTHER SOUTH THE PLUME BECOMES PART OF AN OVERALL MOIST 
AREA NORTH OF THE ITCZ EAST OF A LINE FROM NORTHERN SINALOA TO 
17N110W TO THE ITCZ NEAR 120W. THIS AREA INCLUDES THE TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION MENTIONED ABOVE. 

REMAINDER OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS ANALYZED AS A WEAK 
HEIGHT PATTERN.

THE AREA NORTH OF THE ITCZ EAST OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED MOISTURE 
PLUME IS DIFFLUENT ALOFT WITH MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED AREAS 
OF CONVECTION.

A MODERATE SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 22N WEST OF 128W WITH A WEAKER 
RIDGE ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 12N WEST OF 117W. ELSEWHERE EXCEPT AS 
MENTIONED ABOVE A BROAD TROUGH IS ANALYZED ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE.
 
$$
LL