000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190914
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI JUN 19 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E CENTERED NEAR 19.7N 107.1W 1004 MB AT 0900 
UTC OR ABOUT 195 NAUTICAL MILES W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...MOVING NNE 
AT 10 KT. FAVORABLE ANTICYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS OVER THE 
SYSTEM IS BEING ENHANCED BY AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE 
NW OF THE DEPRESSION. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
DEPRESSION IS CONFINED TO THE NE SEMICIRCLE...FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN
106W-108W. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM 
LATER TODAY THEN MOVE INLAND OVER MEXICO SAT. HEAVY RAINS 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF SW MEXICO AS THE 
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST AND MOVES INLAND.

...TROPICAL WAVE...
TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF 10N ALONG 98W MOVING W 10-15 KT. A LARGE AREA 
OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE WAVE AND N 
OF 14N WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE WAVE.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 8N83W 10N95W THEN RESUMES AT 12N111W 7N125W 6N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM SE OF AXIS FROM 
113W-118W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 
NM N OF AXIS FROM 125W-129W.

...DISCUSSION...
MID/UPPER RIDGE IS N OF 20N W OF 125W. RIDGE IS FORECAST TO 
PERSIST AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE 
ATMOSPHERE COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 115W WITH OVERCAST TO 
OCCASIONALLY BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE 
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR 30N113W...WITH A TROUGH S FROM THE 
CIRCULATION TO 17N118W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA N OF 22N FROM 
110W TO 125W. THE AREA IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 
LEVELS WITH MOSTLY OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. 
DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW EAST OF THE TROUGH IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE 
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE THE TROPICAL WAVE DISCRIBED 
ABOVE.

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE DEEP TROPICS IS 
CENTERED NEAR 12N124W. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SE OF THE ANTICYCLONE IS 
ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ.

THE AREA N OF THE ITCZ E OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH IS DIFFLUENT 
ALOFT WITH DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTI LEVEL 
CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED AREAS OF CONVECTION.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF 14N W OF 120W.
 
$$
DGS