000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190407
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU JUN 18 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E CENTERED NEAR 18.9N 107.7W 1004 MB AT 0300 
UTC OR ABOUT 220 NAUTICAL MILES W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...MOVING NNE 
AT 7 KT. FAVORABLE ANTICYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS OVER THE 
SYSTEM IS BEING ENHANCED BY AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE 
NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
DEPRESSION HAS DECREASED SOME...HOWEVER A NEW AREA OF CONVECTION IS 
DEVELOPING WITHIN 120 NM NE OF THE CENTER. THE DEPRESSION IS 
FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER THIS MORNING THEN MOVE 
INLAND OVER MEXICO SAT EVENING. HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF SW MEXICO AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES 
THE COAST AND MOVES INLAND.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF 10N ALONG 96W/97W MOVING W 10-15 KT. A LARGE 
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM E 
OF THE WAVE.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 7N78W 10N95W THEN RESUMES FROM 7N120W 9N130W TO 
6N140W. SCATTERED TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE AXIS 
FROM 126W-131W

...DISCUSSION...
MID/UPPER RIDGE IS N OF 20N WEST OF 125W. RIDGE IS FORECAST TO 
PERSIST AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE 
ATMOSPHERE COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 115W WITH OVERCAST TO 
OCCASIONALLY BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE IS OVER THE NE PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. 
THE TROUGH IS N OF 22N FROM 110W TO 125W. THE AREA IS DRY AND 
CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH MOSTLY OVERCAST 
STRATOCUMULUS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW EAST OF THE 
TROUGH COUPLED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ADVECTING A MOISTURE PLUME 
FROM THE ITCZ NORTHWARD OVER A BROAD AREA 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF A 
LINE FROM NEAR 28N100W TO 15N106W TO 05N115W. THIS AREA INCLUDES THE 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MENTIONED ABOVE. IT ALSO INCLUDED ANOTHER WEAKER 
LOW CENTERED NEAR 11N114W 109MB. THIS LOW IS WEAK AND FORECAST TO 
REMAIN WEAK AS IT DRIFTS WEST.

REMAINDER OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS ANALYZED AS A WEAK 
HEIGHT PATTERN.

THE AREA NORTH OF THE ITCZ EAST OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED MOISTURE 
PLUME IS DIFFLUENT ALOFT WITH MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED AREAS 
OF CONVECTION.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 14N WEST OF 120W. ELSEWHERE EXCEPT AS 
MENTIONED ABOVE A BROAD TROUGH IS ANALYZED ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE.
 
$$
DGS