000 AXPZ20 KNHC 181031 CCA TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC THU JUN 18 2009 ...CORRECTED TO ADD NEW TROPICAL WAVE... TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... LOW PRES OF 1006 MB IS NEAR 16N109W...OR ABOUT 275 MILES SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MOVING NW 7 KT. THE LOW IS ON THE NE SIDE OF AN ESTABLISHED MONSOON TROUGH CIRCULATION OCCURRING BETWEEN 102W AND 117W FROM 8N TO 16N. SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING REVEALS THAT THIS SYSTEM IS ACQUIRING SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE W SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13N110W TO 14N108W. THIS OUTBURST CONVECTION IS DUE TO THE DIURNAL CYCLE SEEN IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT MOST PROBABLE IS THE FIRST SIGNS THAT THE LOW IS STRENGTHENING SOME WITH THIS CONVECTION DEVELOPING INTO A MORE CONSISTENT BAND DURING THE MORNING. A HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 0100 UTC THIS MORNING REVEALED S TO SW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN 220 NM IN THE SE QUADRANT OF THE LOW...AND ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH WITH SE-S WINDS OF MAINLY 20 KT WITHIN 150 NM OF LOW IN THE NE QUADRANT. MANY RAIN FLAGGED WIND VECTORS OF HIGHER SPEEDS WHERE NOTED SE OF THE LOW AND TROUGH. THE S TO SW WINDS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO AN ENHANCEMENT OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE S SIDE OF THE TROUGH. LATEST NHC OUTLOOK HAS THIS SYSTEM UNDER A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF IT BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT TRACKS MORE TO THE N. IT IS LIKELY THAT HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF SW MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ...TROPICAL WAVE... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE FAR ERN PORTION OF THE AREA ALONG 92W N OF 13N...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SEEN WITHIN 30-60 NM OF THE WAVE OVER EPAC WATERS. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N78W 5N90W 12N102W 10N115W 7N125W 7N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 84W-88W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 110W-116W...AND WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 127W-131W. ...DISCUSSION... A SHARP DEEP LAYER EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SW INTO THE AREA TO 21N1119W WHERE IT BECOMES A SHEAR AXIS TO 19N128W AND TO A LOW MOVING WWD NEAR 16N139W. A TROUGH THEN EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SE TO ABOUT 4N134W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE INDICATING VERY DRY AND SUPPRESSED ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS IS NOTED WITHIN 220 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH FROM 22N TO 25N...AND FROM 9N TO 22N W OF 130W. UPPER LEVEL MOSITURE N OF THE REGION CONTINUES TO SPILL SWD INTO THE NE PORTION OF THE AREA AS IT WORKS AROUND A LARGE UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 30N135W. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ANTICYCLONE SE TO 23N125W. AT THE SURFACE...THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE 1027 MB HIGH IS ANALYZED N OF THE AREA NEAR 33N146W WITH A RIDGE SE TO 23N124W. THE PRES GRADIENT AT THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE IS ALLOWING FOR NE 20 KT WINDS TO BE CONFINED FROM 14N TO 17N W 135W AS CONFIRMED BY A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 0415 UTC THIS MORNING. THIS AREA OF WINDS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NWD WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS TO N OF 20N W OF 135W WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWERS SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING SW N OF 20N AND W OF 115W IN RESPONSE TO THE RIDGE. TO THE SE OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH...A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NE MEXICO SW TO ACROSS THE SURFACE LOW NEAR 16N109W AND CONTINUES TO 12N114W TO 8N118W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS JUST ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 19N103W. A SMALL AREA OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT BETWEEN THE LOW AND AND THE RIDGE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST FROM 18N TO 21N W TO 106W. AT THE SURFACE...A NEARLY STATIONARY 1008 MB LOW IS NEAR 11N114W WHICH IS ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS MENTIONED ABOVE UNDER SPECIAL FEATURE. SLIGHT CYCLONIC TURNING IS EVIDENT WITH THIS LOW. ITS ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED ABOVE UNDER ITCZ...AND THE LOW ONLY HAS A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A WEAK SMALL TROUGH BISECTS THE ITCZ ALONG 131W FROM 5N TO 9N. IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO ENHANCE ITCZ AS IT TRANSLATES WWD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT N AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS MOVES NW. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH SAT AS A SMALL UPPER LOW FORMS OVER NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND IS THEN EJECTED NEWD BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S PER MODEL GUIDANCE. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH MENTIONED ABOVE AND LOWER PRES OVER MEXICO AND THEN SW IS RESULTING IN AN AREA OF NW WINDS TO 20 KT ALONG A PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST FROM 24N TO 28N AND E OF 117W. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN ABOUT 24-30 HOURS. $$ AGUIRRE