000 AXPZ20 KNHC 162219 CCA TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC TUE JUN 16 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. ...CORRECTION TO LAST PARAGRAPH... BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS EMBEDDED NEAR THE NE END OF A MONSOON TROUGH CIRCULATION OCCURRING BETWEEN 100W AND 118W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY TODAY HAS SUGGESTED MULTIPLE LOW LEVEL CENTERS ROTATING CYCLONICALLY WITHIN AN ELONGATED MEAN CIRCULATION...WITH THIS MEAN CENTER MOVING WNW NEAR 10 MPH. THE LOW LEVEL CENTERS HAVE APPEARED INTERMITTENTLY ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF DEEP CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OCCURRING IN THE S AND SE QUADRANTS OUT TO 120 NM FROM THE CENTER...SUGGESTING N TO NE WIND SHEAR. AT 18Z...A 1008 MB LOW CENTER WAS ESTIMATED NEAR 14.5N105W...OR 285 MILES SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. SCATTEROMETER PASSES FROM TODAY REVEAL A BROAD ZONE OF SW TO S WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KT ON THE SOUTH AND EAST SIDES OF THIS SYSTEM... WHICH HAVE BEGUN TO SPIRAL IN TOWARDS THE CENTER. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AND IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM 08N77W TO 10N90W TO 13.5N103W TO 1008 MB LOW TO 09N115W TO 08N126W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS E OF 82W TO THE COLOMBIAN COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 150 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 95W AND 102W...AND ALSO BETWEEN 110W AND 118W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE S OF AXIS W OF 124W. ...DISCUSSION... THE UPPER PATTERN IS BECOMING A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED W OF 110W AS DEEP LAYER TROUGH DIGS INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SW TO 12N140W. THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 30N119W TO 26N125W. THIS TROUGH IS IMPINGING ON A SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1025 MB HIGH PRES CELL NEAR 31N145W TO SOUTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO ROUGHLY 25N114W. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE BAJA COAST. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING INDICATED AN AREA OF 20 KT NORTH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PERSISTING BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE AND THE BAJA COAST. THE FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE RIDGE MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH. SOUTH OF THE RIDGE...AN AREA OF FRESH TRADES PERSISTS MAINLY W OF 135W. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST BUT WEAKEN THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF JUST OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST. FURTHER TO THE EAST...AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO...AND AN UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED ABOVE 12N100W. THE DEEP LAYER NE FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE STRONG SHEARING OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW PRES AREA NEAR 14.5N105W. DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT HAS ALSO AIDED IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS LOW...SCATTEROMETER AND EARLIER BUOY DATA SHOWED A BROAD AREA OF S TO SW CROSS EQUATORIAL FLOW...AT AND BELOW 20 KT. THIS FLOW...ALONG WITH THE NE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE NORTH...MAY BE ENHANCING THE ROTATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CENTER. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH LATE WEEK...ESPECIALLY IF THE LOW PRES AREA DEEPENS. THIS FLOW WILL WILL INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE SOUTH...ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ THROUGH LATE WEEK MAINLY BETWEEN 95W AND 125W. MEANWHILE...LONG PERIOD SW SWELL OF 15-16 SECONDS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 3 TO 4 FT IS MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN MEXICAN AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICAN PACIFIC COASTLINES...BUT SHOULD BE DIMINISHING THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE MODERATE SURF ALONG EXPOSED COASTLINES...AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS WITHIN THE SURF ZONE. $$ STRIPLING