000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150405
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JUN 15 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...10N85W TO 
06N115W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE POINT 11N103W. 

...DISCUSSION...

WELL DEFINED DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 
AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA TO THE 
ITCZ NEAR 135W. A PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EMANATING FROM 
THE ITCZ IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW EAST OF THE 
TROUGH AXIS AND EXTENDS EAST OF A LINE FROM NEAR 32N105W TO 
20N118W TO 10N1135W. WEST OF THIS LINE THE ATMOSPHERE IS DRY AND 
CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH PATCHY 
STRATOCUMULUS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. EVEN THE MOISTURE PLUME IS 
CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. THE TROUGH IS 
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH MID WEEK.

A MOSTLY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER EASTERN MEXICO AND EXTENDS 
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE PACIFIC WITH A TROUGH AXIS FROM THE 
NORTHEAST PART OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO NEAR 15N95W TO THE 
ITCZ NEAR 97W. THE TROUGH IS MOVING WEST ABOUT 15 KNOTS AND IS 
FORECAST TO ONLY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS AN ACTIVE AREA OF CONVECTION WITH 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM 
OF 09.5N95.5W. A BROAD AREA OF MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS IS OVER THE 
PACIFIC AREA EAST OF THE TROUGH WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF UPPER 
DIFFLUENCE.

REMAINDER OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS UNDER BROAD 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH 
AND IS ALONG A LINE THROUGH 32N124W TO 27N133W. ELSEWHERE NORTH 
OF 12N WEST OF 110W A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS ANALYZED. REMAINDER 
OF THE AREA IS ANALYZED AS A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH.
 
$$
LL