000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141512
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN JUN 14 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 8N84W 7N100W 7N110W 6N125W 6N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE AXIS 
FROM 102W TO 108W AND WITHIN 150 NM S OF AXIS FROM 112W TO 116W.

...DISCUSSION...
MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SSW FROM CALIFORNIA TO 32N119W 
CONTINUES SW TO 25N121W TO NEAR 11N135W. MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE AREA FROM 
12N-25N W OF 125W AND FROM 15N-25N BETWEEN 120W-125W. SE OF THE 
TROUGH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CONTINUES 
OVER W CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 20N102W. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE 
ANTICYCLONE SW TO 10N115W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON ITS SE 
PERIPHERY IS ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION E OF 105W AND CONVECTION 
N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 13N88W TO 9N93W. 
IN THE DEEP TROPICS A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ENTERS THE AREA AT 
10N140W AND EXTENDS SE TO 5N128W.

SURFACE RIDGE ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA AT 28N140W AND EXTENDS 
SEWD TO NEAR 16N112W. THE PRES GRADIENT AT THE SOUTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE IS ALLOWING FOR NE TRADE WINDS TO 20 KT 
TO BE CONFINED FROM 10N-16N W OF 135W. A 1006 MB SURFACE LOW IS 
ANALYZED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO...COMBINED WITH THE RIDGE IN THE
PACIFIC IS PRODUCING 20 KT NW WINDS WITHIN AROUND 150 NM OF 
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN 
EXTENDS S ACROSS HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR TO 12N89W.

LARGE SLY SWELLS CONTINUE TO MOVE N FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE 
AND COVER MUCH OF THE S PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA S OF 10N 
E OF AROUND 90W.
 
$$
DGS