000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140954 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SUN JUN 14 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0915 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY NOTED ALONG 84W HAS BEEN RE-ANALYZED AS A TROUGH N OF THE AREA FROM NORTHERN NICARAGUA N INTO THE W CARIBBEAN SEA. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N78W 9N84W 8N100W 7N110W 6N120W 6N130W 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 88W-92W AND BETWEEN 101W-104W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 131W-135W. ...DISCUSSION... A MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SSW FROM CALIFORNIA INTO THE FAR NE CORNER OF THE AREA THROUGH 32N119W...AND CONTINUES SW TO 25N121W TO 18N127W TO NEAR 11N132W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE WITH ASSOCIATED DRY AIR UNDER NW FLOW IS PRESENT TO THE W OF THE TROUGH...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS SPILLING INTO THE AREA AROUND A LARGE MID/UPPER RIDGE W OF THE AREA ALONG 145W. TO THE SE OF THE TROUGH...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER WESTERN MEXICO NEAR 20N102W EXTENDS A RIDGE SW TO 15N108W TO 9N114W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON ITS SE PERIPHERY IS ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION E OF 105W. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT N AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN MOVES WSW OR SW INTO THE EPAC. THE MID/UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SHARPEN WITH A CUT-OFF LOW EVOLVING FROM IT ALONG OR NEAR 31N120W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ENTERS THE AREA AT 10N140W AND EXTENDS SE TO 7N135W TO 5N131W. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 28N140W AND EXTENDS SEWD TO NEAR 20N117W. THE PRES GRADIENT AT THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE IS ALLOWING FOR NE TRADE WINDS TO 20 KT TO BE CONFINED FROM 10N-18N W OF 132W AS CONFIRMED BY A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 0240 UTC THIS MORNING. THIS AREA OF WINDS IS FORECAST TO CONTRACT SOME DURING THE 48 HOURS AS A WEAK TROUGH NEAR 140W MOVES W OF THE AREA. THE PRES GRADIENT IN BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH AND LOWER PRES OVER MEXICO...AS WELL AS TERRAIN VARIATIONS OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA IS CONTINUING TO PRODUCE NW WINDS OF 20 KT ALONG AND WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST. THESE SAME WINDS ALSO EXIST OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WITH THE SURFACE PATTERN CHANGING VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS EXPECT THESE NW WINDS TO CONTINUE EXCEPT DIMINISHING OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING SHOWED SUCH WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. OF NOTE WITH REGARDS TO MARINE ISSUES...LONG PERIOD S TO SW SWELLS OF 13-15 SECONDS HAVE OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA ELEVATING SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 8 OR 9 FT PRIMARILY OVER THE AREA FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 92W-108W. LATEST WAVE PERIOD AND WAVE GUIDANCES SUGGEST THAT A NEW SWELL TRAIN OF INCREASED PERIODS (IN THE RANGE OF 15-17 SECONDS) WILL EMERGE FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE TO ACROSS THE EQUATOR ...AND REACH THE COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO BEGINNING MON AND INTO TUE LEADING TO POSSIBLE DANGEROUS BREAKING SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THOSE COASTS. $$ AGUIRRE